Jared Dillian | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Investment Strategist
Before joining Mauldin Economics, Jared was one of Wall Streets preeminent risk-takers. After receiving his MBA from the University of San Francisco, he got hired by Wall Street giant Lehman Brothers where he worked from 2001 to 2008first as an index arbitrage trader and then as head of the ETF ...more

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25th Hour
For most of this year, we were in a strong USD/high-interest rates/long large-cap tech regime. That all changed on Tuesday.
My Affinity For Short-Term Interest Rates
Short-term interest rates are easier to trade than anything else. Why? Because they trend.
The Likelihood Of A Crash
With all that’s going on in the world, it’s hard to believe that we’re at 4,200+ on the S&P 500, a full 20% off the lows, and not far off the highs.
The Next 100 Years
Over the last 100 years, the US equity market has returned about 9% annually. What will it return over the next 100 years?
The Email Beige Book
Contrary to what some people might believe, we still do have a business cycle in this country. We have periods of overinvestment and underinvestment.
Inflation Vs. Deflation - What’s At Stake
The Fed has hiked rates a lot, though it hasn’t caused a recession yet. That may happen still, monetary policy works with a long lag. We are seeing some signs that things are slowing down.
What Are Interest Rates?
Interest rates are the penalty you pay for purchasing something today instead of postponing consumption until tomorrow.
Don’t Accept Losses From Virtue Investing
You put on a trade. You are short bonds, or something like that. It may be tempting to see the people on the other trade as the “bad guys,” while you are the “good guys.”
Bearish In A Bull Market
You want to know where the market is going? Don’t follow the smart money; follow the dumb money.
Thinking In Probabilities
What is the probability that a stock will go from 10 to 5 when it has already gone from 50 to 10? The answer might surprise you.
The Probability Of Something Bad Happening
I am very alert to the probability that the US will default on its debt. There is a small probability of that happening—but that probability is higher than at any point in history.
AI Is The Next Internet… Expect Weird Things
My theory on AI is that it’s going to drastically improve productivity, setting off another productivity boom like we had in the ‘90s, which will offset some of the inflation we are experiencing.
How ’Bout Those Housing Doom Predictions
A few months ago, the internet was filling up with predictions that we’d have a 2008-style crash in home prices, the increase in interest rates would cause mortgage payments to skyrocket and price out an entire generation of homebuyers.
The Only Strategy That Is Repeatable
The only strategy that is repeatable over years, decades, and centuries is sentiment. Sentiment always works.
Inflation Will Bounce
Yesterday’s CPI report showed that inflation continues to slow to 5% on an annualized basis. That is a lot better than it was last year. We should be happy about this.
Dreams Of A Soft Landing
The focus now is on commercial real estate and CRE loans, primarily held on small regional banks’ balance sheets.
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