James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 1

James Picerno

Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more
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Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near Term Outlook: Futures Market
Monday, April 15, 2024 9:05 AM EDT
In the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data for March, the implied forecast via Fed funds futures indicates that interest-rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead.
In this article: SHY
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10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate - Thursday, April 11
Thursday, April 11, 2024 7:25 AM EDT
Yesterday’s hotter-than-expected consumer inflation report suggests that a hefty market premium will endure, and perhaps rise further, in the near term.
In this article: IEF
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Momentum Remains Top Equities Factor Performer In 2024
Wednesday, April 10, 2024 5:41 PM EDT
As for small-cap stocks, the frustration and regret rolls on. A number of analysts in recent years have flagged this slice of the market as poised to rally, but false dawns continue to endure.
In this article: MTUM
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Risk-On Sentiment Persists, Defying Gravity — And Logic?
Tuesday, April 9, 2024 12:27 AM EDT
The list of things that could derail risk-on sentiment is long and varied, but at the moment the crowd has shown little enthusiasm for abandoning winning trades.
In this article: USMV, SMH, SPY, XHB
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Will Sticky Inflation Kill Prospects For Rate Cuts In 2024?
Monday, April 8, 2024 1:03 PM EDT
The consensus outlook is still projecting that the Federal Reserve will trim its target interest rate by the end of the year.
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U.S. Q1 GDP Nowcast Highlights Growth Slowdown Persisting
Friday, April 5, 2024 9:40 AM EDT
U.S. economic output is still on a path for a materially softer pace of growth in the first-quarter GDP report scheduled for release at the end of this month.
In this article: SPY
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Commodities Continue To Lead Major Asset Classes In 2024
Thursday, April 4, 2024 10:00 AM EDT
A number of broad-brush commodity funds are rebounding in 2024 after a down year for the asset class in 2023.
In this article: GCC, VTI, GSG
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New Questions Emerge On Prospects For A June Rate Cut
Wednesday, April 3, 2024 10:10 AM EDT
Forecasts that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June took another hit after Monday’s relatively firm manufacturing survey data for March.
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Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes
Tuesday, April 2, 2024 8:15 AM EDT
The long-run performance estimate for the Global Market Index ticked up again in March.
In this article: AGG, IWV Also: BND
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Major Asset Classes Performance Review - March 2024
Monday, April 1, 2024 7:31 AM EDT
The rally in global assets broadened in March, lifting nearly every slice of the major asset classes. The downside outlier: bonds in emerging markets. Otherwise, last month delivered a clean sweep of gains, based on a set of ETFs.
In this article: EMLC, BND, VEA, VNQI, GSG, VTI, WIP
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Floating-Rate And Junk Bonds Lead Fixed Income So Far In 2024
Wednesday, March 27, 2024 8:12 AM EDT
The bond market has struggled to fully recover from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive run of interest-rate hikes in 2022-2023, but pockets of strength remain conspicuous.
In this article: BND, IEF, SJNK, BKLN, FLRN
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Negative Equity Risk Premium Estimates Persist For US Equities
Tuesday, March 26, 2024 9:15 AM EDT
The roaring US stock market has delivered red-hot gains in recent history but at the expense of future returns.
In this article: IEF, SPX
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Hope Springs Eternal, Again, For Small-Cap Equities
Monday, March 25, 2024 11:20 AM EDT
The stock market is soaring and the rising tide has lifted small-cap shares, but if you’ve been expecting a hefty premium in smaller firms, well, there’s still plenty of disappointment to process.
In this article: IWB, IWM
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US Q1 Growth Nowcast Ticks Down, Suggests Expansion Is Slowing
Friday, March 22, 2024 9:30 AM EDT
The US economy remains on track to post a moderate growth rate in the upcoming first-quarter GDP report, but the expansion continues to show signs of slowing.
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Fed Still Expects To Cut Rates Despite Sticky Inflation
Thursday, March 21, 2024 8:25 AM EDT
The Federal Reserve lifted its outlook for core PCE inflation in 2024 but reaffirmed expectations that interest rates will probably fall by the end of the year.
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Profiling A ‘Real Assets’ Portfolio During The Recent Inflation Surge
Wednesday, March 20, 2024 8:10 AM EDT
The sharp runup in US inflation in 2021-2022 revived the idea that a so-called real assets portfolio is crucial for asset allocation strategies. But with the peaking of inflation in mid-2022, that outlook has turned murky.
In this article: BND, AOM, GLD, SPY, TIP, VNQ, CSG
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