Co-Founder and Chief Analyst at Bespoke Weather Services
Contributor's Links: Bespoke Weather Services

I use the latest numerical weather model guidance and a wide array of fundamental and technical data sets to predict trends in the natural gas market.  At Bespoke Weather Services I compile the latest data into easy-to-read research reports issued ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Looser EIA Print And Warmer Models Reverse Natural Gas Rally
January natural gas price started out the day shooting higher, as overnight models increased long-range cold risks.
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Natural Gas Finally Collapses Lower
The January natural gas contract got hit hard today, shooting over 6% lower as balances loosened on warmer weather and long-range forecasts showed only limited colder risks.
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Lingering Warmth Takes A Bite Out Of Gas
Selling was widespread at the front of the natural gas strip, as continued warmer forecasts for December sent the January futures contract 3% lower.
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Natural Gas Volatility Isn't Going Anywhere
It was another very volatile day in the natural gas space, as prices gapped up decently last evening, sold-off through the morning, spiked on cold risks in American model guidance mid-day and then sold-off hard into the settle.
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A Little Cold Risk And Nat Gas Soars
It was a bullish end of the week for natural gas prices, as the very end of European weather model guidance showed marginally more favorable upstream conditions for cold and that was all it took for prices to shoot almost 4% higher on the day.
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Warmer Mid-December Trends Send Gas Back Lower
It's been quite the back-and-forth in the natural gas market this week, with colder short-term trends and tightening balances helping prices bounce early but warmer trends later in the month keeping prices in check.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Natural Gas Approaching Key Short-Term Support Level
2 years ago

Thank you! The case with #LNG is interesting as in the short-term it is not having too significant a demand impact (EIA estimates.5-.7 bcf/d), but longer-term could with further development and investment. Most analysis I conduct is focused on the near-term in the next few weeks/months of price action, but in what I have done as well it has become clear how comparatively cheap our gas is in comparison to other parts of the world.

In this article: UNG
Natural Gas Declines: Some Seasonality At Play
2 years ago

Thank you for your comment and kind words, Chetan! I began by studying meteorology and the impacts it has within the financial markets, and proceeded to home in on the natural gas market, a market known for swinging wildly due to changes in weather forecasts resulting in different energy demand expectations. To create analysis that was more useful to traders, I decided to pare weather analysis alongside other fundamental/technical analysis into a subscription product, so traders could subscribe and more easily determine when the weather or other fundamentals/technicals were driving price action. Since then, I've been researching other models/theories on price movement to combine alongside the meteorological analysis I conduct. I definitely enjoy posting to this site and plan to continue as regularly as I can.

1 to 2 of 2 comments

STOCKS I FOLLOW

BOIL ProShares Trust II
CHK Chesapeake Energy Corporation
COG Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation
CORN Teucrium Corn ETF
DBA PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund
DGAZ VelocityShares 3x Inv Natural Gas ETN
JJOFF iPath Bloomberg Coffee SubTR ETN
SOYB Teucrium Commodity Trust
SWN Southwestern Energy Co.
UGAZ Credit Suisse VelocityShares 3X Long Natural Gas Exchange Traded Notes 2012- Linked to S&P GSCI Natu
UNG United States Natural Gas Fund LP
USO United States Oil Fund, LP
XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation
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Work Experience

Chief Weather Analyst
Bespoke Weather Services
May 2015 - Present (3 years 8 months)

I serve as the Chief Weather Analyst and co-founder of Bespoke Weather Services, working with Bespoke Investment Group. I compile research reports using the latest weather data to alert energy (primarily natural gas) traders of upcoming major weather events that will influence market patterns. I similarly speculate in the physical natural gas futures market off of this weather data

Chief Weather Analyst and Founder
SWCT Weather
October 2008 - Present (10 years 4 months)

I serve as the Chief Weather Analyst of SWCT Weather, accurately forecasting localized weather impacts for Southwestern Connecticut and adjacent New York for the past 7 years

Research Assistant
NAVSTAR Advisors
May 2014 - September 2014 (5 months)

Education

Harvard University
Bachelor’s Degree
2013 / 2017
Social Studies (North American Climate and Politics), 3.7.

Publications