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Ironman is the alias of the blogger at Political Calculations, a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics. We should acknowledge that Ironman is either formerly or currently, and quite possibly, ... more


The S&P 500 Claws Its Way Back Above 2800
The second week of July 2018 saw the S&P 500 finally claw its way back above the 2,800 level, closing the week at the highest level that it has been since the end of January 2018.
Decelerating Trade Growth Between China And U.S.
What effect is the tit-for-tat trading of tariffs between the U.S. and China having upon the world's two largest trading partners economies?
Dividends By The Numbers For June 2018
Both the month of June 2018 and the second quarter of 2018 have come and gone, and for dividend-paying stocks, it would appear to have been a very good month that hid one big negative surprise: an unexpectedly large number of dividend cuts.
S&P 500: What Trade War?
U.S. stock market investors aren't very concerned about the developing trade war between the U.S. and China.
May 2018 Median Household Income
May 2018 marks the first test of our updated model for estimating median household income, where our alternate method indicates that the median income for U.S. households in May 2018 is $61,497.
The S&P 500 In The Final Week Of 2018-Q2
We're at the end of 2018-Q2, it's also time to look ahead into the alternative futures of 2018-Q3.


Latest Comments
U.S. Recession Probability Ticks Slightly Up After Fed Does Nothing
9 months ago

Correction - need to fix the date in the second paragraph, where the affected sentence should read as follows:

Or to put it more simply, there is currently very little chance that the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday declare that a national recession began in the U.S. between now and 22 September 2018 as based upon Jonathan Wright's recession forecasting method.

U.S. Student Loan Explosion
1 year ago

Correction: That should be $137 billion in the last paragraph (not "$137 million").

Roiling Under The Surface With The S&P 500 In Week 2 Of June 2017
1 year ago

Quick follow up: We got our wires crossed in reading the FedWatch model - with a now 87% probability that the Fed will not hike interest rates in 2017-Q3, it is actually largely in agreement with what the S&P 500 and dividend futures are telling us!

In this article: SPX
Update: The National Dividend Through December 2016
1 year ago

Typo alert! The third paragraph should read:

"With that introduction now out of the way, we can now update the U.S.' national dividend through the end of 2016."

Dividends: By The Numbers For 2016
1 year ago

The fourth bullet point in the article above should read:

"59 U.S. firms announced that they would either cut or suspend their dividend payments to their shareholders, up from the 40 firms that cut their dividends back in December 2015 and the most since 93 U.S. firms announced they would reduce their cash dividend payments in December 2012."

We apologize for our confusion with respect to the dates that we indicated!

1 to 5 of 5 comments


AAPL Apple Inc.
APOL Apollo Education Group Inc.
BA The Boeing Company
BP BP p.l.c.
BXUB Barclays Bank PLC
BXUC Barclays Bank PLC
CHN The China Fund Inc.
CN Deutsche X-trackers Harvest MSCI All China Equity ETF
CXSE WisdomTree China ex-State-Owd Entpr ETF
DBA PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
EPS WisdomTree Earnings 500 Fund
EWC iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund
EWU iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund
FCA First Trust Exchange-Traded AlphaDEX Fund 2
FXA CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust
FXI iShares China Large-Cap
FXP ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25
GCH The Greater China Fund Inc.
GE General Electric Company
GM General Motors Company
IVV iShares S&P 500 Index Fund
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund
JFC JF China Region Fund Inc.
MCHI iShares MSCI China
NYT New York Times Co.
OIL iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN
PGJ PowerShares Gldn Dragon Halter USX China
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
RINF ProShares Inflation Expectations ETF
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