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Ironman is the alias of the blogger at Political Calculations, a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics. We should acknowledge that Ironman is either formerly or currently, and quite possibly, ... more

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GE's Looming Dividend Cut
At GE's current day market cap of $108 billion, I would anticipate a 35-40% reduction in the size of the company's dividends, from $0.12 per share to about $0.07 per share.
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The View Of The S&P 500 From The Futures
The second week of October 2018 was one of the most interesting for the S&P 500 in quite some time. Since there has been no change in fundamental expectations, I can rule out any growing fear of a stalling stock market.
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U.S. Crude Oil Exports To China Zero Out
International U.S. trade data indicates that U.S. crude oil exports to China collapsed during the month.
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Serious Shenanigans For U.S. Soybeans
Historically, very low levels of U.S. soybean exports to China in the month of August is not unprecedented.
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S&P 500 Investors Focus On 2019-Q1 In Week 1 Of 2018-Q4
In the first week of October 2018, S&P 500 continued to firmly fix their forward-looking focus on 2019-Q1 in setting stock prices.
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U.S. Exports To China Collapse In August 2018
According to international trade data published by the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. exports to China collapsed in August 2018.
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Comments

Latest Comments
August 2018 Median Household Income
15 days ago

Typo alert! The second sentence in the Analyst's Notes section should read as follows:

Our alternate estimate is up by 0.4% from the $62,152 preliminary figure that we had previously reported for July 2018, which we would revise upward this month to be $62,184.

An increase to $625,184 would have truly been remarkable!

The Impact Of The U.S.- China Trade War On Their Trade To Date
1 month ago

Very good points - thank you for your comments! We should also recognize that China's retaliatory tariffs are having a similar effect on Chinese consumers where U.S. goods are involved. Where the interests of regular people are involved, tariffs are not a positive development, no matter why they're applied.

The Impact Of The U.S.- China Trade War On Their Trade To Date
1 month ago

Clearly, we hadn't yet have enough coffee when we wrote:

"where we can use a the linear trend established in the months before any tariffs were first imposed as a counterfactual for what the value of trade would be in the absence of their budding trade war with each other."

If we had more caffeine, and a do-over, we would make that:

"where we can use the trend established in the months before any tariffs were first imposed as a counterfactual to tell us what the value of trade would be in the absence of their budding trade war with each other."

Small differences, but much clearer!...

New Home Sales Market Continues Deceleration
2 months ago

Our thanks to TalkMarkets' editors for updating the article with the corrected version of the animated chart so quickly! [For those wondering what we're talking about, we had erroneously posted a version of the chart that only showed data through December 2017.]

Either GE Or Its Dividend, And Possibly Both, Are Set To Shrink
2 months ago

Thanks for your comments. We're expressing our own takeaway from Flannery's earlier comments. I would agree that Flannery did not intend to set that expectation, but since investors reacted the way they did to those remarks, it would appear that we weren't alone in having that impression.

From a practical management standpoint, if a dividend cut was being considered for the immediate future, GE could have followed through with announcing it in June, where we think that the impact to its stock price would have been minimal because the expectation of a dividend cut among investors had already effectively lowered the stock price. In other words, the expectation was built in. And, to a certain extent, it still is.

If GE does ultimately follow through and announce another dividend cut later, we would describe the June meeting as a missed opportunity for GE's leadership to get the negative impact behind them earlier. That said, I hope the company's business outlook stabilizes and it doesn't have to come to that - we would much rather analyze the company's successful turnaround!

In this article: GE
U.S. Recession Probability Ticks Slightly Up After Fed Does Nothing
1 year ago

Correction - need to fix the date in the second paragraph, where the affected sentence should read as follows:

Or to put it more simply, there is currently very little chance that the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday declare that a national recession began in the U.S. between now and 22 September 2018 as based upon Jonathan Wright's recession forecasting method.

U.S. Student Loan Explosion
1 year ago

Correction: That should be $137 billion in the last paragraph (not "$137 million").

Roiling Under The Surface With The S&P 500 In Week 2 Of June 2017
1 year ago

Quick follow up: We got our wires crossed in reading the FedWatch model - with a now 87% probability that the Fed will not hike interest rates in 2017-Q3, it is actually largely in agreement with what the S&P 500 and dividend futures are telling us!

In this article: SPX
Update: The National Dividend Through December 2016
1 year ago

Typo alert! The third paragraph should read:

"With that introduction now out of the way, we can now update the U.S.' national dividend through the end of 2016."

Dividends: By The Numbers For 2016
1 year ago

The fourth bullet point in the article above should read:

"59 U.S. firms announced that they would either cut or suspend their dividend payments to their shareholders, up from the 40 firms that cut their dividends back in December 2015 and the most since 93 U.S. firms announced they would reduce their cash dividend payments in December 2012."

We apologize for our confusion with respect to the dates that we indicated!

1 to 10 of 10 comments

STOCKS I FOLLOW

AAPL Apple Inc.
APOL Apollo Education Group Inc.
BA The Boeing Company
BP BP p.l.c.
BXUB Barclays Bank PLC
BXUC Barclays Bank PLC
CHN The China Fund Inc.
CN Deutsche X-trackers Harvest MSCI All China Equity ETF
CXSE WisdomTree China ex-State-Owd Entpr ETF
DBA PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
EPS WisdomTree Earnings 500 Fund
EWC iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund
EWU iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund
FCA First Trust Exchange-Traded AlphaDEX Fund 2
FXA CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust
FXI iShares China Large-Cap
FXP ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25
GCH The Greater China Fund Inc.
GE General Electric Company
GM General Motors Company
GXC SPDR S&P China ETF
IVV iShares S&P 500 Index Fund
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund
JFC JF China Region Fund Inc.
MCHI iShares MSCI China
NYT New York Times Co.
OILB iPath B S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR ETN
PGJ PowerShares Gldn Dragon Halter USX China
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
RINF ProShares Inflation Expectations ETF
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LATEST ACTIVITY

Ironman Commented on August 2018 Median Household Income:

Typo alert! The second sentence in the Analyst's Notes section should read as follows:

Our alternate estimate is up by 0.4% from the $62,152 preliminary figure that we had previously reported...

more
Ironman Commented on The Impact Of The U.S.- China Trade War On Their Trade To Date:

Very good points - thank you for your comments! We should also recognize that China's retaliatory tariffs are having a similar effect on Chinese consumers where U.S. goods are involved. Where the intere...

more
Ironman Commented on The Impact Of The U.S.- China Trade War On Their Trade To Date:

Clearly, we hadn't yet have enough coffee when we wrote:

"where we can use a the linear trend established in the months before any tariffs were first imposed as a counterfactual for what the value of trad...

more
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