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Ironman is the alias of the blogger at Political Calculations, a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics. We should acknowledge that Ironman is either formerly or currently, and quite possibly, ... more

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"Meh": The Market's Response To The "Most Important Week Of 2018"
A new round of tariffs being imposed by the U.S. and China on goods exported by each to the other on Friday didn't contribute much more than a trivial level of noise to the market on the last day of the second full week of June 2018.
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Fed Raises Rates, Recession Risk To Rise In Response
The risk of a national recession beginning in the United States anytime in the next year, from 13 June 2018 through 13 June 2019, has slightly increased by 0.2% over the last six weeks, where the odds now stand at 0.8%.
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Either GE Or Its Dividend, And Possibly Both, Are Set To Shrink
GE's market capitalization of $121 billion is consistent with investors still anticipating a 20-25% dividend cut in the future.
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Alternative Futures For The S&P 500 In Week 1 Of June 2018
The S&P 500 closed up at 2,779.03 to close the week ending on Friday, 8 June 2018.
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Trade War Tariffs Hurting U.S., China
The United States and China are the world's two largest trading partners.
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Dividends By The Numbers For May 2018
For dividends in the U.S. stock market, May 2018 fell pretty much in the middle of every other May during the previous five years.
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Comments

Latest Comments
U.S. Recession Probability Ticks Slightly Up After Fed Does Nothing
8 months ago

Correction - need to fix the date in the second paragraph, where the affected sentence should read as follows:

Or to put it more simply, there is currently very little chance that the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday declare that a national recession began in the U.S. between now and 22 September 2018 as based upon Jonathan Wright's recession forecasting method.

U.S. Student Loan Explosion
1 year ago

Correction: That should be $137 billion in the last paragraph (not "$137 million").

Roiling Under The Surface With The S&P 500 In Week 2 Of June 2017
1 year ago

Quick follow up: We got our wires crossed in reading the FedWatch model - with a now 87% probability that the Fed will not hike interest rates in 2017-Q3, it is actually largely in agreement with what the S&P 500 and dividend futures are telling us!

In this article: SPX
Update: The National Dividend Through December 2016
1 year ago

Typo alert! The third paragraph should read:

"With that introduction now out of the way, we can now update the U.S.' national dividend through the end of 2016."

Dividends: By The Numbers For 2016
1 year ago

The fourth bullet point in the article above should read:

"59 U.S. firms announced that they would either cut or suspend their dividend payments to their shareholders, up from the 40 firms that cut their dividends back in December 2015 and the most since 93 U.S. firms announced they would reduce their cash dividend payments in December 2012."

We apologize for our confusion with respect to the dates that we indicated!

1 to 5 of 5 comments

STOCKS I FOLLOW

AAPL Apple Inc.
APOL Apollo Education Group Inc.
BA The Boeing Company
BP BP p.l.c.
BXUB Barclays Bank PLC
BXUC Barclays Bank PLC
CHN The China Fund Inc.
CN Deutsche X-trackers Harvest MSCI All China Equity ETF
CXSE WisdomTree China ex-State-Owd Entpr ETF
DBA PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
EPS WisdomTree Earnings 500 Fund
EWC iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund
EWU iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund
FCA First Trust Exchange-Traded AlphaDEX Fund 2
FXA CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust
FXI iShares China Large-Cap
FXP ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25
GCH The Greater China Fund Inc.
GE General Electric Company
GM General Motors Company
GXC SPDR S&P China ETF
IVV iShares S&P 500 Index Fund
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund
JFC JF China Region Fund Inc.
MCHI iShares MSCI China
NYT New York Times Co.
OIL iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN
PGJ PowerShares Gldn Dragon Halter USX China
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
RINF ProShares Inflation Expectations ETF
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