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Ironman is the alias of the blogger at Political Calculations, a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics. We should acknowledge that Ironman is either formerly or currently, and quite possibly, ... more

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Unique Evidence Of Recessionary Conditions In China From 2014 To 2016
Stronger Chinese economic growth will push global greenhouse gas emissions to a record high in 2017 after remaining flat for three years, dashing tentative hopes of a turning point in the world’s efforts to curb climate change.
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Fall 2017 Snapshot Of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings
Today's snapshot of the trailing year earnings per share for the S&P 500 reveals that the stock market's earnings have continued rebounding off their 2016-Q3 bottom, where the S&P 500's earnings per share now exceed their previous 2014-Q3 peak.
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GE Has Further To Fall
Based on a simple relationship between the company's share price and its forward year dividends per share, we find that GE is elevated above the level that investors have valued the company's shares for its given level of dividends payouts since 2009
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The Alternate Timeline Where GE Finally Cut Its Dividend
For GE, the slashing of its dividend comes with the news that the company itself will become much smaller. And yet, analysts don't believe that the restructuring that GE's CEO John Flannery also announced on November 13 goes far enough.
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The S&P 500 Falls Back From New Records In Week 2 Of November 2017
On Wednesday, November 8, the S&P 500 (SPY) closed at an all time new record high closing value of 2594.38, before going on to fall back a bit to end the week at 2582.30.
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The Amazing Picture Of America's Oil Export Growth
In December 2015, the U.S. Congress lifted a 40-year old ban on the export of crude oil from the United States. One month later, the U.S. exported a little over $0.5 billion worth of crude oil out of the country.
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Latest Comments
U.S. Recession Probability Ticks Slightly Up After Fed Does Nothing
1 month ago

Correction - need to fix the date in the second paragraph, where the affected sentence should read as follows:

Or to put it more simply, there is currently very little chance that the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday declare that a national recession began in the U.S. between now and 22 September 2018 as based upon Jonathan Wright's recession forecasting method.

U.S. Student Loan Explosion
5 months ago

Correction: That should be $137 billion in the last paragraph (not "$137 million").

Roiling Under The Surface With The S&P 500 In Week 2 Of June 2017
5 months ago

Quick follow up: We got our wires crossed in reading the FedWatch model - with a now 87% probability that the Fed will not hike interest rates in 2017-Q3, it is actually largely in agreement with what the S&P 500 and dividend futures are telling us!

In this article: SPX
Update: The National Dividend Through December 2016
9 months ago

Typo alert! The third paragraph should read:

"With that introduction now out of the way, we can now update the U.S.' national dividend through the end of 2016."

Dividends: By The Numbers For 2016
10 months ago

The fourth bullet point in the article above should read:

"59 U.S. firms announced that they would either cut or suspend their dividend payments to their shareholders, up from the 40 firms that cut their dividends back in December 2015 and the most since 93 U.S. firms announced they would reduce their cash dividend payments in December 2012."

We apologize for our confusion with respect to the dates that we indicated!

1 to 5 of 5 comments

STOCKS I FOLLOW

AAPL Apple Inc.
APOL Apollo Education Group Inc.
BA The Boeing Company
BP BP p.l.c.
BXUB Barclays Bank PLC
BXUC Barclays Bank PLC
CHN The China Fund Inc.
CN Deutsche X-trackers Harvest MSCI All China Equity ETF
CXSE WisdomTree China ex-State-Owd Entpr ETF
DBA PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
EPS WisdomTree Earnings 500 Fund
EWC iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund
EWU iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund
FCA First Trust Exchange-Traded AlphaDEX Fund 2
FXA CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust
FXI iShares China Large-Cap
FXP ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25
GCH The Greater China Fund Inc.
GE General Electric Company
GM General Motors Company
GXC SPDR S&P China ETF
IVV iShares S&P 500 Index Fund
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund
JFC JF China Region Fund Inc.
MCHI iShares MSCI China
NYT New York Times Co.
OIL iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN
PGJ PowerShares Gldn Dragon Halter USX China
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
RINF ProShares Trust
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Ironman Commented on U.S. Recession Probability Ticks Slightly Up After Fed Does Nothing:

Correction - need to fix the date in the second paragraph, where the affected sentence should read as follows:

Or to put it more simply, there is currently very little chance that the National Bureau of Ec...

more
Ironman Commented on U.S. Student Loan Explosion:

Correction: That should be $137 billion in the last paragraph (not "$137 million").

Ironman Commented on Roiling Under the Surface with the S&P 500 in Week 2 of June 2017:

Quick follow up: We got our wires crossed in reading the FedWatch model - with a now 87% probability that the Fed will not hike interest rates in 2017-Q3, it is actually largely in agreement with what the...

more
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