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Ironman is the alias of the blogger at Political Calculations, a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics. We should acknowledge that Ironman is either formerly or currently, and quite possibly, ... more


Order Ends And A New Era Begins For The S&P 500
The breakdown of order in the S&P 500 became clearly evident on 11 January 2017, when the level of the S&P 500 surged to be more than three standard deviations above the mean trend curve.
S&P 500 Continues In Lévy Flight In Week 2 Of January 2018
The S&P 500 continued its rapid rise in the second week of January 2018, having now risen some 112.63 points, or 4.2%, since the last day of trading in 2017, to close at a new record high value of 2,786.24 on Friday, 12 January 2018.
Brazil's Back And U.S. Soybeans To China Are Getting Hammered, Good News On U.S.-China Trade
For the peak export month of October, the estimated volume of soybeans being shipped from U.S. ports to China has fallen by 91.5 million bushels from 2016's record 384.3 million bushels (a 24% drop).
S&P 500 In Lévy Flight In Week 1 Of January 2018
In the first week of 2018, investors would appear to be shifting their forward-looking horizons to the more distant future, from the current quarter of 2018-Q1 toward, we believe, the more distant future quarter of 2018-Q3.
New Tools For Assessing China's Economy In Near Real-Time
China's official economic statistics bureau has struggled over the years to accurately capture the state of that nation's economy for years, where it recently was forced to revise its previous estimate of its GDP in 2016 downward.
Dividends By The Numbers Through December 2017
2017 marked something of a turnaround for the fate of dividends paid by publicly-traded companies throughout the year.


Latest Comments
U.S. Recession Probability Ticks Slightly Up After Fed Does Nothing
3 months ago

Correction - need to fix the date in the second paragraph, where the affected sentence should read as follows:

Or to put it more simply, there is currently very little chance that the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday declare that a national recession began in the U.S. between now and 22 September 2018 as based upon Jonathan Wright's recession forecasting method.

U.S. Student Loan Explosion
7 months ago

Correction: That should be $137 billion in the last paragraph (not "$137 million").

Roiling Under The Surface With The S&P 500 In Week 2 Of June 2017
7 months ago

Quick follow up: We got our wires crossed in reading the FedWatch model - with a now 87% probability that the Fed will not hike interest rates in 2017-Q3, it is actually largely in agreement with what the S&P 500 and dividend futures are telling us!

In this article: SPX
Update: The National Dividend Through December 2016
11 months ago

Typo alert! The third paragraph should read:

"With that introduction now out of the way, we can now update the U.S.' national dividend through the end of 2016."

Dividends: By The Numbers For 2016
1 year ago

The fourth bullet point in the article above should read:

"59 U.S. firms announced that they would either cut or suspend their dividend payments to their shareholders, up from the 40 firms that cut their dividends back in December 2015 and the most since 93 U.S. firms announced they would reduce their cash dividend payments in December 2012."

We apologize for our confusion with respect to the dates that we indicated!

1 to 5 of 5 comments


AAPL Apple Inc.
APOL Apollo Education Group Inc.
BA The Boeing Company
BP BP p.l.c.
BXUB Barclays Bank PLC
BXUC Barclays Bank PLC
CHN The China Fund Inc.
CN Deutsche X-trackers Harvest MSCI All China Equity ETF
CXSE WisdomTree China ex-State-Owd Entpr ETF
DBA PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
EPS WisdomTree Earnings 500 Fund
EWC iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund
EWU iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund
FCA First Trust Exchange-Traded AlphaDEX Fund 2
FXA CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust
FXI iShares China Large-Cap
FXP ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25
GCH The Greater China Fund Inc.
GE General Electric Company
GM General Motors Company
IVV iShares S&P 500 Index Fund
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund
JFC JF China Region Fund Inc.
MCHI iShares MSCI China
NYT New York Times Co.
OIL iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN
PGJ PowerShares Gldn Dragon Halter USX China
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
RINF ProShares Trust
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Ironman Commented on U.S. Recession Probability Ticks Slightly Up After Fed Does Nothing:

Correction - need to fix the date in the second paragraph, where the affected sentence should read as follows:

Or to put it more simply, there is currently very little chance that the National Bureau of Ec...

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