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Ironman is the alias of the blogger at Political Calculations, a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics. We should acknowledge that Ironman is either formerly or currently, and quite possibly, ... more

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Snapshot Of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings
The projected future for S&P 500 earnings has softened through the end of 2018, but has strengthened through the end of 2019.
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Mid-Quarter Snapshot Of Dividend Cuts In 2018-Q3
The third quarter of 2018 is nearly half over, which makes it a good time to see how the number of dividend cuts that have been announced over the previous six weeks compared with the same points of time in the third quarter of 2017.
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The S&P 500 In The Week When Turkey Happened
Turkey happened, and the S&P 500 retreated by 0.7% on Friday, 10 August 2018 to close the week at 2,833.28.
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A Surprise Shift In U.S. Soybean Exports
There was a small pickup in growth rates, with U.S. exports to China accelerating to a positive value, ahead of a smaller increase in the growth rate of China's exports to the United States.
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1 In 91 Chance Of U.S. Recession Starting Before August 2019
As expected, the risk of a national recession beginning in the United States at some time in the next twelve months has increased by 0.3% over the last six weeks.
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The S&P 500 In The Week When Apple's Market Cap Reached $1 Trillion
We're definitely on the backside of 2018-Q3's earnings reporting season, where the pace of news about the previous quarters earnings is slowing and investors are turning their attention toward other diversions.
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Latest Comments
New Home Sales Market Continues Deceleration
23 days ago

Our thanks to TalkMarkets' editors for updating the article with the corrected version of the animated chart so quickly! [For those wondering what we're talking about, we had erroneously posted a version of the chart that only showed data through December 2017.]

Either GE Or Its Dividend, And Possibly Both, Are Set To Shrink
23 days ago

Thanks for your comments. We're expressing our own takeaway from Flannery's earlier comments. I would agree that Flannery did not intend to set that expectation, but since investors reacted the way they did to those remarks, it would appear that we weren't alone in having that impression.

From a practical management standpoint, if a dividend cut was being considered for the immediate future, GE could have followed through with announcing it in June, where we think that the impact to its stock price would have been minimal because the expectation of a dividend cut among investors had already effectively lowered the stock price. In other words, the expectation was built in. And, to a certain extent, it still is.

If GE does ultimately follow through and announce another dividend cut later, we would describe the June meeting as a missed opportunity for GE's leadership to get the negative impact behind them earlier. That said, I hope the company's business outlook stabilizes and it doesn't have to come to that - we would much rather analyze the company's successful turnaround!

In this article: GE
U.S. Recession Probability Ticks Slightly Up After Fed Does Nothing
10 months ago

Correction - need to fix the date in the second paragraph, where the affected sentence should read as follows:

Or to put it more simply, there is currently very little chance that the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday declare that a national recession began in the U.S. between now and 22 September 2018 as based upon Jonathan Wright's recession forecasting method.

U.S. Student Loan Explosion
1 year ago

Correction: That should be $137 billion in the last paragraph (not "$137 million").

Roiling Under The Surface With The S&P 500 In Week 2 Of June 2017
1 year ago

Quick follow up: We got our wires crossed in reading the FedWatch model - with a now 87% probability that the Fed will not hike interest rates in 2017-Q3, it is actually largely in agreement with what the S&P 500 and dividend futures are telling us!

In this article: SPX
Update: The National Dividend Through December 2016
1 year ago

Typo alert! The third paragraph should read:

"With that introduction now out of the way, we can now update the U.S.' national dividend through the end of 2016."

Dividends: By The Numbers For 2016
1 year ago

The fourth bullet point in the article above should read:

"59 U.S. firms announced that they would either cut or suspend their dividend payments to their shareholders, up from the 40 firms that cut their dividends back in December 2015 and the most since 93 U.S. firms announced they would reduce their cash dividend payments in December 2012."

We apologize for our confusion with respect to the dates that we indicated!

1 to 7 of 7 comments

STOCKS I FOLLOW

AAPL Apple Inc.
APOL Apollo Education Group Inc.
BA The Boeing Company
BP BP p.l.c.
BXUB Barclays Bank PLC
BXUC Barclays Bank PLC
CHN The China Fund Inc.
CN Deutsche X-trackers Harvest MSCI All China Equity ETF
CXSE WisdomTree China ex-State-Owd Entpr ETF
DBA PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
EPS WisdomTree Earnings 500 Fund
EWC iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund
EWU iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund
FCA First Trust Exchange-Traded AlphaDEX Fund 2
FXA CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust
FXI iShares China Large-Cap
FXP ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25
GCH The Greater China Fund Inc.
GE General Electric Company
GM General Motors Company
GXC SPDR S&P China ETF
IVV iShares S&P 500 Index Fund
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund
JFC JF China Region Fund Inc.
MCHI iShares MSCI China
NYT New York Times Co.
OILB iPath B S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR ETN
PGJ PowerShares Gldn Dragon Halter USX China
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
RINF ProShares Inflation Expectations ETF
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Ironman Commented on New Home Sales Market Continues Deceleration:

Our thanks to TalkMarkets' editors for updating the article with the corrected version of the animated chart so quickly! [For those wondering what we're talking about, we had erroneously posted a version...

more
Ironman Commented on Either GE Or Its Dividend, And Possibly Both, Are Set To Shrink:

Thanks for your comments. We're expressing our own takeaway from Flannery's earlier comments. I would agree that Flannery did not intend to set that expectation, but since investors reacted the way they...

more
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