Managing Partner at ARL Advisers, LLC
Contributor's Links: TacticalBeta ARL Advisors

Guy M. Lerner, MD has been writing about the markets for over 10 years providing readers with independent and original market analysis.  Lerner is the principal partner in ARL Advisers, LLC, a registered investment advisory in ... more

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4 Asset Model Portfolio
We have a sell signal in our fundamental bond model, yet the technicals in this asset class remain constructive. Thus we are NEUTRAL on bonds. We liquidated our position in BND at Monday’s open, and this position gained 1.45% since early January.
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Weekly Sentiment Report: Extreme Bullishness
As stated last week, investors continue to believe in a “sure thing”. That is, investors believe that this market has only one direction and it is up. This week, that belief in a “sure thing” is a whole lot stronger.
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4 Asset Model Portfolio
Presently, the markets are all about equities, and unfortunately, our portfolio has shunned equities for the better part of the year.
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Weekly Sentiment Report: A Sure Thing
Investors are beginning to believe that this market is “a sure thing”. My dislike for betting on the “sure thing” isn’t so much that I have a belief that all “sure things” must fail, but rather why even play when the pay off on the “sure bet” is so small.
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Weekly Sentiment Report: SP500 Notches New Highs
7 weeks ago, our “dumb money” indicator dipped its toe into the extreme pessimism range after the markets (i.e., SP500) sold off only modestly (<5%). Since that single week extreme reading which was not a buy signal by our measures, the SP500 is up nearly 3%.
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Equity Chart Book: 5.27.14
The SPY is safely above well delineated support levels. IWM and QQQ are lagging, but QQQ has woken up this past week. I guess this is the message of this mixed market — speculative issues aren’t in vogue.
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
GLD SPDR Gold Trust ETF
OIL iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
SPY SPDR S&P 500

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