Founder, F.A.S.T. Graphs
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F.A.S.T. Graphs™ founded by Charles (Chuck) Carnevale.  The F.A.S.T. Graphs™ tool takes all the hours of manual graphing of business fundamentals and reduces it to seconds, giving you critical information in an instant. This charting tool has been used by Chuck and his family ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Demystifying The Amazon Valuation Dilemma
It is no secret that Amazon has been a disruptive force, especially relating to the retail sector. On the other hand, the company is also an enigma to the value focused fundamental investor such as yours truly.
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EC HH The Active Versus Passive Performance Debate Is Nonsensical
One of the most hotly contested debates in finance is the argument over which is better – active or passive investing.
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The Most Important Stock Investment Lesson I Ever Learned
Buying stocks with short-term expectations falls more into the category of speculating than it does in investing. Stock prices are fickle and unpredictable in the short run.
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EC PAG: Growth, Value And Dividend Growth Hiding In Plain Sight
Penske Automotive Group looks like a very attractive investment opportunity with an above-market current yield, low valuation, and above-average growth potential.
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EC UPS Purchased To Meet These Specific Objectives
We believe UPS offers the dividend growth investor the opportunity for a growing dividend yield with only modest downside risk.
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EC The Threat And Risk Of Rising Interest Rates: Separating Fact From Fiction
The seminal question is: How real is the threat, and how much impact will rising rates have on stock prices and investor performance?
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Comments

Latest Comments
How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?
1 year ago

Jim,

Thanks for your input. However, with all due respect, I suggest you are misconstruing what I was showing with AVP. I simply used it as an example to illustrate what a true value trap looked like. Nothing in my analysis was in reference to what might be happening with AVP going forward. However, since you brought it up, if you look closely at the FAST Graph in the article, you will notice that estimates suggest a strong recovery in 2016. On that basis, it could be argued that a recovery is in the making.

Nevertheless, to repeat and clarify; my utilization of AVP in this article had nothing to do with the company’s future. Instead, it was simply used as an example to illustrate how a company’s stock price would track a long-term trend in falling earnings, even when historical current valuations appeared reasonable.

Regards,

Chuck

In this article: VFC, AVP, HRL, KMB, MCD, PNR, SHW, WBA
How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?
1 year ago

Susan,

Please see reply to Wax above.

Regards,

Chuck

In this article: VFC, AVP, HRL, KMB, MCD, PNR, SHW, WBA
How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?
1 year ago

Wax and Susan,

I’m sorry you are finding FAST Graphs confusing. Actually, they are very simple to understand once you know what you are looking at. FAST is an acronym for fundamentals analyzer software tool. What makes this stock research tool different is that it focuses on the business behind the stock. The orange line on the graph represents a reference of intrinsic value based on widely-accepted formulas for valuing a business. The orange line is drawn by placing a multiple on each year’s earnings.

In the Pentair graph, the orange line represents a P/E ratio of 15 across the entire graph. Therefore, if the price is touching the orange line anywhere, the stock is trading at a fair value P/E ratio of 15. Conversely, if the price is below the line, it is trading at a lower P/E - and vice versa.

The black line on the graph represents monthly closing stock prices overlaid on to the graph. When the price is above the orange line, overvaluation is indicated, and when the price is below the orange line, undervaluation is indicated. Note how the price tracks earnings over the long-term, and when it gets disconnected it inevitably moves back into alignment. Since price is currently below the orange line, which represents fair value, Pentair appears undervalued with a P/E ratio of 11.2. On a live graph you would be able to point to the orange line and a pop-up would appear indicating what a fair value price would be today.

Finally, if you are interested, here is a link to a paper titled The Interpretation of the Earnings and Price Correlated FAST Graphs Made Simple that will assist you in understanding FAST Graphs.

www.fastgraphs.com/.../...aphs%20Made%20Simple....

Regards,

Chuck

In this article: VFC, AVP, HRL, KMB, MCD, PNR, SHW, WBA
How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?
1 year ago

Wall Street Jack,

Thanks for your comment, I found it interesting. However, there is a difference between a down year where the company was still profitable, but earnings were slightly lower than the previous year versus a company that is actually generating losses. Most cyclical companies will go through periods of rising and falling earnings over time. However, the strong ones will always be profitable in each and every year. In other words, the earnings of many cyclicals tend to be always positive. Frankly, like you, I would never buy a company that was producing losses.

Regards,

Chuck

In this article: VFC, AVP, HRL, KMB, MCD, PNR, SHW, WBA
1 to 4 of 4 comments

STOCKS I FOLLOW

AAPL Apple Inc.
CELG Celgene Corporation
CLX The Clorox Company
CVS CVS Health Corporation
LMT Lockheed Martin
PG Procter & Gamble Co.
RTN Raytheon Company

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