Ed Dolan - Comments
Sr. Fellow, Niskanen Center
Contributor's Links: Ed Dolan's Econ Blog

Edwin G. Dolan holds a PhD in economics from Yale University. He has taught in the United States at Dartmouth College, the University of Chicago, George Mason University and Gettysburg College. From 1990 to 2001, he taught in Moscow, Russia, where he and his wife founded the American Institute ... more

Latest Comments
Little-Watched Non-Employment Index Confirms Strength Of Job Market Recovery
1 month ago

As a further follow up to the issue of wages and jobs, check out my latest post, which explores the role of the rising cost of healthcare benefits in the slow growth of wages www.talkmarkets.com/.../employer-health-benefits-and-wages-the-good-news-and-the-bad

Little-Watched Non-Employment Index Confirms Strength Of Job Market Recovery
1 month ago

Yes, it is a bit of a mystery why wages are not responding to labor market tightening. However, whatever the answer is to the wage puzzle, I do not think that the correct answer is that the labor market has a lot of hidden slack. Something else is going on. I will try to focus on that "what else" in future posts.

Looking Behind The CPI Headlines To Spot Inflation Trends
2 months ago

As of right now, I would bet yes, but there is time for data to change before next expected increase (toward the end of the year).

What Inflation Means To You: Inside The Consumer Price Index
2 months ago

Very nice summary. It calls attention to the difference between "inflation" (an increase in the general price level) which is the Fed's worry, and changes in the "cost of living," which are strongly affected by the volatility noted in the charts.

BofA Lashes Out At The Fed: "Take That Punch Bowl Away" Or Face A Crash
2 months ago

Would it be fair to say there is a tension here between those who think the Fed should focus on asset bubbles and those who think it should put the traditional focus on the Phillips curve? The former group wants a hike, and fast; the latter thinks the timing for further hikes is all wrong, especially in view of the latest CPI release.

Health Costs Are Rising Because Of Price Controls
2 months ago

Good summary of the problems with the ACA. I 100% agree that getting rid of the tax preference for employer-provided insurance would help a great deal.

A couple points where we might differ in the way we would pursue similar goals: I agree, high risk pools are one way to handle those with pre-existing conditons, but I think universal catastrophic coverage (an idea favored even by Milton Friedman) might be better. See here for a further discussion: www.talkmarkets.com/.../unintended-consequences-of-healthcare-decentralization

Also, with regard to federalism, yes, the states have a role to play, but decentralization is a two-edged sword. Embracing it without careful planning could have unintended consequences. See here: www.talkmarkets.com/.../unintended-consequences-of-healthcare-decentralization

Will Low Inflation Delay Fed Rate Hikes?
2 months ago

Agree. I think it is also worth looking at the Cleveland Fed's unique estimates of #inflation expectations. I like them because they try to break out the risk premium factor in the TIPS spreads data to get a cleaner read on pure expectations. Look at their charts ( www.clevelandfed.org/.../...tion-expectations.aspx ) and notice how the yield curve on inflation expectations is flattening. IMO that may be the strongest point in support of the view that the case for rapid rate hikes is weakening.

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