My path to writing this blog began as a personal journey. Prior to the start of this so-called “Great Recession,” my ex-wife had a family home that was an inheritance from her mother. I worked as a property manger at the time, and near the end of 2007, I could tell from rumblings in ... more
My path to writing this blog began as a personal journey. Prior to the start of this so-called “Great Recession,” my ex-wife had a family home that was an inheritance from her mother. I worked as a property manger at the time, and near the end of 2007, I could tell from rumblings in the industry that the U.S. housing market was on the verge of catastrophic collapse. I urged her to press her brothers to sell the family home before prices dropped. The house went on the market and sold right away — and just three months before Bear-Stearns and others crashed, taking the U.S. housing market down for the tumble. Her family sold at the peak of the market.
Having foreseen the beginning of what is now called The Great Recession half a year before it hit, the economic collapse seemed to me the kind of thing anyone should have seen if his eyes were wide open. So, I decided in the months thereafter to write humorous editorials in a series I called “Downtime“, which chided the U.S. government and banking people who should have seen the economic collapse on the horizon but whose greed, cronyism, and ineptitude got us into this mess. I self-syndicated those articles to The Hudson Valley Business Journal, The Valley City Times-Record (North Dakota), The Daily Herald (Tennessee) and a news website in Israel (www.worthynews.com) and another in Australia (australia.to).
The articles were critical of the Bush and early Obama administrations and stated without reservation why all political efforts at the time were wrong, sometimes bordering on immoral, and why they would fail — even how long it would take for them to fail. You can use the link above or in the sidebar to go back and see whether or not the Great Recession was foreseeable.
My own economic situation changed to where I no longer had time to write because property management became more than full-time. I did, however, continuecorrespondence with a friend who was a financial advisor. With less humor and more full-on punch, I criticized the daily news — not just the content but the uncritical, unthinking nature of almost all of the reporting. Routinely reporters would repeat the government’s mantra of “recovery” as if there were one. They endlessly parroted the government’s statement that the Great Recession had ended in the summer of 2009 when it was so obvious it had not. Frustration over such reporting kept me writing to my friend. I also discussed where programs like Ben Bernanke’s quantitative easing would lead (and what it would not lead to, i.e., “recovery”) and when it would fail. I ventured a number of economic predictions along the way.
The predictions proved right on schedule. (Well, let’s say they ran tighter to schedule than Amtrak anyway.) Toward the end of that writing, I told my friend we could expect further economic collapse mid-to-late summer of 2011 after quantitative easing ended in June. I said this would come for certain because quantitative easing had not created any sustainable recovery. It had merely propped up the middle of what would eventually be seen as an economic depression. It was an illusion of recovery. When the prop disappeared, so would the “recovery.”
Quantitative easing was the wrong prescription and had only created another economic bubble in the stock market due to the huge dump of baseless money the Fed was pouring into the economy. When the essentially free money ended, so would the bubble. The bubble held briefly through July, and then it burst in another market freefall that lasted most of August.
Why should I have known this when Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve board members clearly did not?
Another reason I gave for predicting an end-of-summer freefall was that the Republicans, who were willing at the time to risk the flawless credit rating of the entire United States, did not believe their brinkmanship over the debt ceiling would cause a credit downgrade and a stock-market plunge. Because they knew they would come to an agreement in time to avoid default (that much being under their control), they did not fear any economic damage. I was certain they were wrong and that their brinksmanship would cause serious damage even though they would come to a final-hour agreement. It did.
Why should I have known this while they did not?
The simple answer to both questions above is that people do not see what they do not want to see. It’s called “denial.” (Well, that, and you have to consider that, if I were wrong in my predictions, I wouldn’t be telling you about it.)
I stated before the U.S. credit rating downgrade that the Republicans were ignorant in not seeing that the very fact of their quarreling — all by itself — would trigger a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating, which would bring a cascade of other problems. That was because it would, without a doubt, cause intelligent people throughout the world to think the U.S. cannot manage its problems; so, some institution would finally muster the courage to downgrade U.S. credit.
Again, that was exactly what happened. The Republicans came to a final-hour agreement, but the downgrade happened immediately thereafter anyway. That downgrade by Standard and Poor’s triggered the August market nosedive, which I had already said was a load ready to fall due to the end of quantitative easing. With their brinksmanship, the Republicans pulled the stick out from under the load that propped it up. I pointed out to my friend that this market plunge exactly mirrored the collapse that led into the Great Depression (graphically speaking).less
|The Great Recession Blog|
|October 2011 - Present (5 years 7 months)|
I write a blog on the economic collapse (http://TheGreatRecession.info/blog). I launched it on October 4, 2011.
|Black Mountain Ranch|
|August 2012 - September 2014 (2 years 2 months)|
Run a 174-acre private club with horses, pastures, barns, golf course, ball field, gymnasium, indoor and outdoor swimming pools, horseshoe pits, outdoor volleyball, miniature golf, adult and teen lounges, craft room, wood shop, outdoor stage, and campsites ... set at the gateway to the Mount Baker National Forest in the Cascade Mountains.
|University of Washington|
|1992 / 1993|
|Western Washington University|
|Bachelor of Arts|
|1979 / 1984|