Investment Writer - Presenter
Contributor's Links: In the Long Run

I have been following the ebb and flow of financial markets for more than 30 years. I have worked for brokers and asset managers in commodities, money markets, capital markets, equities and foreign exchange.

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My interests include, but are not ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Central Bank Balance Sheet Adjustment – A Path To Enlightenment?
A tapering or an adjustment of CB balance sheets, combined with a tightening of monetary policy, may have profound unintended consequences which will be magnified by a severe shakeout in over-extended stock and bond markets.
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Hard Brexit Maths – Walking Away
It has been estimated that if the UK accedes to EU demands for a further EUR 100bln in order to begin the process of establishing a bi-lateral trade deal with the EU post-Brexit, it will cost the UK economy 4.4% of GDP.
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Is There Any Value In The Government Bond Markets?
The bull market in stocks which began in March 2009, has been driven, more than any other factor, by the fall in the yield of government bonds.
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Trumped Or Stumped? The Tax Cut, The Debt Ceiling And Riding The Gravy Train
A corporate tax cut from 35% to 15% will cost US$200bln/annum.
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Will Technology Change The Prospects For Emerging Market Growth?
The challenge to low-cost manufacturing in emerging markets is from technology.
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US 30 Year Swaps Have Yielded Less Than Treasuries Since 2008 – Does It Matter?
With 30yr Swap yields below T-bond yields arbitrage should be possible.
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Protectionism - Which Countries Have Room For Fiscal Expansion
As globalisation goes into reverse, fiscal policy will take the strain Countries with government debt to GDP ratios <70% represent >45% of global GDP Fiscal expansion by less indebted countries could increase total debt by at least $3.48trln
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