President of Downside Hedge
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Blair Jensen is President of Downside Hedge which provides market commentary and hedging strategies for individual investors. His development of a stock market sentiment indicator based on the Twitter stream is changing the way investors and traders ... more

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Waiting For Signs Of Bullishness
SPX is in a well defined range of 2300 to 2400 with minor support at the last lows near 2320. 7 day momentum and Twitter sentiment is in a clear short term downtrend. If the trend is broken to the upside it should confirm a resumption of the rally.
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Continued Chop
The market is trying to break out, but breadth isn’t improving. This condition often results in a choppy market. If the market can break out then bulls want to see breadth improve or we risk a good size decline when the rally ends.
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Breadth Not Improving
The market is trying to break out, but breadth isn’t improving. This condition often results in a choppy market. If the market can break out then bulls want to see breadth improve or we risk a good size decline when the rally ends.
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Thinning Breadth Near All Time High
Support and resistance gleaned from Twitter for SPX shows a clear range between 2300 and 2400. If the market can get above 2400, it should move fairly quickly to 2450 as that area is getting calls from a large number of traders.
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Ready For The Rally
SPX is getting ready to surge to new highs, but measures of breath aren’t confirming the move. If broad participation doesn’t accompany a break out, I suspect we may see a blow off type top.
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Waiting For A Direction - Friday, April 21
My core indicators are compressing near zero. This indicates that market participants are waiting for a direction.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Market Risk Warning Is Flashing
1 year ago

The core portfolios went from 100% long to 50% long and 50% short (hedged with short positions) between July 10th and August 14th. The market risk warning signals at inflection points. We're either a week or two from the bottom or just starting a major decline (greater than 20%). For that reason I change the hedge to something that will benefit from higher volatility. Most people think you should buy volatility when it's "cheap". I'd rather buy it when it's valuable.

Waiting Without Hope
1 year ago

Carol, we track and score every tweet for over 650 symbols on Twitter. Any person who tweets is included in our "control group". However, we throw out spammers. We have several hundred thousand people that tweet about stocks and have caught almost 50k spammers.

The term sentiment only roughly applies in this case. Our system looks for actions (buying, selling, hedging, etc.), events, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and last of all opinions. Tweets with more justification for an opinion are scored higher. So in the end the indicator shows the direction of the crowd. We use the trend of Twitter momentum to make trades. You can see more info here: www.tradefollowers.com/.../...sis_from_twitter.jsp

Count Of Bearish Stocks Rising
1 year ago

We've created an algorithm that reads the Twitter stream and calculates bullish and bearish reading for stocks. The chart above uses bullish and bearish stocks over the previous month. You can see more info here: https://www.tradefollowers.com/

In this article: SPX
Why Breadth Matters
1 year ago

Yeah, the percent of stocks above their 200 day moving average dipped below 60% this last week. Imagine fund managers with 35% to 50% of their stocks in bearish trends. They'll feel the pressure to sell if the market starts a decent decline. That's what creates the big ones.

In this article: SPX
More Evidence Of Accumulation Vs Distribution
2 years ago

Yeah, the rails have been beaten up lately, but bouncing today.

In this article: SPX, SPY, TWTR
More Deterioration
2 years ago

It looks like fear of a slowing world economy pushing money to safety. Mega caps and government bonds are too strong for a "healthy" rally. Performance from junk bonds show an aversion to risk as well. I get the sense that people are hunkering down into the end of the year over concern of what 2015 will bring.

Twitter Predicting Lower Prices For Emerging Markets
2 years ago

Our spam detection system is pretty good at finding people who are simply bashing or pumping stocks. We try to weed out anyone that fits a particular profile...so to speak.

In this article: ARO, ESV, RSHC, CRUS, EEM, XLE
Twitter Predicting Lower Prices For Emerging Markets
2 years ago

We've been collecting data for over two years. Trades with trend have a win rate of 65%. We have a spam detection system looking for scammers, pumpers, etc.

In this article: ARO, ESV, RSHC, CRUS, EEM, XLE
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Downside Hedge
Blair Jensen
Downside Hedge calculates Twitter stock market sentiment, support, and resistance from your tweets. Downside Hedge also provides hedging strategies for individual investors.