Author of "Money Cycles"

Atle Willems is the author of "Money Cycles - The Curse of an Elastic Money Supply".

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You've Been Warned: The Money Supply Growth Rate Continues To Slide, Drops Below 6%
The money supply growth rate continues to slide indicating a potential increase in economic stress.
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Money Supply Growth Rate Plummets, Interest Rates Up - The Stage Is Set For A Major Stock Market Correction
The shorter term growth rate in the money supply has now turned negative for the past four weeks. The last time this happened, Lehman collapsed.
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Bank Lending Growth In The U.S. Is Plunging
Lending growth in the U.S. is plunging indicating another credit cycle has come to an end, which may soon trigger another financial crisis.
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E U.S. Weekly Stock Market Valuation Indicator - Substantial Downside Risk
Only on one previous occasion has the reading of this stock market valuation indicator been higher: March 2000, the peak of the dotcom bubble.
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E Why Does The Stock Market Peak Prior To A Recession?
The stock market is a leading recession indicator. Here's why.
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U.S. Stocks To Bank Equity Ratio - Now In The 95th Percentile
The current elevated ratio of stock market prices to bank equity indicates further upside potential is limited while downside risk is substantial.
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You've Been Warned: The Money Supply Growth Rate Continues To Slide, Drops Below 6%
2 days ago

Gary, I'm not quite sure how the Fed can be more "countercyclical in downturns". It is Fed intervention, and the fractional reserve banking system it maintains, that cause the financial pain.

Now Is The Best Time To Be Heavily Long U.S. Stocks
16 days ago

I had to read this article as your view is in stark contrast to mine. With valuations at record highs, interest rates moving up, bank lending growth in rapid decline, and the shorter term growth rate of the money supply just having moved into negative territory, my conclusion is the exact opposite. It will be an interesting year.

In this article: VIX, SPX
Economic Stimulus Does Not Stimulate Economic Growth
2 months ago

See your point, but not sure how that could be done fairly. Many things have gone wrong, not just on the money side. One thing is for sure though: people want and need more purchasing power. That can only be achieved with more production as HM would only bring forth additional price inflation.

Economic Stimulus Does Not Stimulate Economic Growth
2 months ago

Yes, they were all bailed out at the expense of others, totally agree. It was a great injustice on a grand scale.

We don't however need yet more AD unbacked by production as that is what has been happening for decades, especially the most recent one. What is needed is increased production. Further increases in the MS will not achieve that (in fact, it will achieve the opposite!). The only sustainable solution IMO to this monetary problem is to implement a largely inelastic currency. Sadly, this option is never discussed by policymakers to my knowledge.

Economic Stimulus Does Not Stimulate Economic Growth
2 months ago

But why does the money supply need to increase at all?

Economic Stimulus Does Not Stimulate Economic Growth
2 months ago

What would helicopter money fix?

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Atle Willems Commented on You've Been Warned: The Money Supply Growth Rate Continues To Slide, Drops Below 6%:

Gary, I'm not quite sure how the Fed can be more "countercyclical in downturns". It is Fed intervention, and the fractional reserve banking system it maintains, that cause the financial pain.

Atle Willems Commented on Now Is The Best Time To Be Heavily Long U.S. Stocks:

I had to read this article as your view is in stark contrast to mine. With valuations at record highs, interest rates moving up, bank lending growth in rapid decline, and the shorter term growth rate of t...

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Money Cycles: The Curse of an Elastic Money Supply
Atle Willems
CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform
01/12/2017

You might have been told differently, but most economies today are never actually economically stable. Under current monetary regimes, financial stability is only a temporary phenomenon as economies around the world are in fact inherently unstable by design. Presently, this is the case more so than perhaps ever before. In "Money Cycles", the curse of an elastic money supply is explained in detail and its effects on economic progress in general and stock market valuations in particular are exposed. The author presents a comprehensive account of the money creation process, how to compile accurate and relevant money supply aggregates, and how the money cycle is the main determinant of the business cycle. In the final part of the book, the Austrian theory of the business cycle is applied to demonstrate how the money cycle determines stock market booms and the crashes that must follow.