Writer of Contrarian opportunities and Macro indicators. Analyst and Editor for Stansberry Research.

 

I am 25

I have bad insomnia which allows me to indulge into brainstorming investments in the middle of the nights. I enjoy reading about financial history and manias, panics and crashes.

I was President of an intl. export company, Adam International ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E Flattening Yield Problem & Death By Low Volatility
We are definitely approaching a "Minsky Moment" after years of cheap debt and low rates. Markets are becoming more expensive and illiquid. Especially if the Fed attempts to unwind its bloated balance sheet. Time to tail-hedge?
Read
E The Bond Market Is Calling The Fed's Bluff
Tuesday the spread between the 5 year and 30 yields collapsed within 96 bips, less than 1%, of each other, for the first time since December 2007. Softening inflation, collapsing credit growth, and inverting yield curves are signaling a recession.
Read
E Odds Rising For Inverting Yields, Falling Stocks & Recession
After yesterday's CPI miss and retail sales dump, the Fed not only hiked but discussed unwinding their balance sheet. What did bonds do? Yields fell. When will stocks?
Read
E Dismal Data & Inverting Yields Signal A Recession
It's the Bond Market vs. The Fed. Bond markets signal recession but the Fed signals growth. The recent data is looking poor for 2017. The year-over-year loans for real estate, auto and commercial are all trending far lower.
Read
E Consumer Credit Flops And Why This Is A Big Problem
Yesterday the Fed released the consumer credit growth data for April missing economists expectations by 50% and represents the slowest growth in consumer credit since 2011. With GDP dependent on consumption, are we looking at an economic slowdown?
Read
E What Will It Take To Turn This Bull Market Euphoria?
Market prices are the aggregate of investor opinions. And since 2008, the crowd has put all its faith in Central Bank subsidies. It's like the "Greenspan Put" on steroids. So what will it take to really turn things?
Read

Comments

Latest Comments
Snap Fails To Generate Interest And Value
6 months ago

Great article and Agree

In this article: SNAP
Face Off: Stocks Vs. Bonds And The Economic Outlook
6 months ago

I just wrote an article also discussing the divergence. To me its more the Bond market vs the Fed. Bond investors expecting deflation and recession and disbelieving the Feds optimism for inflation and higher growth.

I also use the recent data showing falling loan origination markets...

If the Fed continues hiking and long term rates keep falling as economic data worsens, we're looking at an inverted yield curve. Which almost certainly will mean a recession.

Good article Sir.

Something Big Happened In The Gold Market: Must See Charts
1 year ago

Well done article

In this article: GLD
Jayant Bhandari: Gold Miners Overpriced
1 year ago

Only that mining equities were overvalued

In this video: GDX, GDXJ, GLD
Jayant Bhandari: Gold Miners Overpriced
1 year ago

Great interview - well done. Always a pleasure to hear Jayant's insight. But I must say I disagree with him on this one.

In this video: GDX, GDXJ, GLD
Gold Flows East – Silver Follows
1 year ago

Very good work - it's ridiculous the imbalance between people's perceptions of gold and its reality

In this article: GLD, SLV
Pundits 'Hunting' For 'Signs Of A Bear'
1 year ago

excellent article - a very good source of "real" data that major media hubs are absent of showing.

What Exactly Is The Fed Thinking? Avoid Catching Falling Knives
1 year ago

I think of it as more of a carefully approached speculation, similar to chess, about the only options the Fed has.

Recession is here this they need to cut/go negative/QE

Or they try to not embarrass themselves after touting how well the economy is doing, warranting a rate hike, and keep the hikes going to keep confidence in them - and plunge he economy into a great recession.

Either or both roads lead to the same path.

The Ghost Of The Feds Past: Rate Hikes, Rate Cuts, And The Great Collapse
1 year ago

I also dont think it is the sole reason either.

But mentioning China, they had a similar volatile and our markets also plunged in August, just as the crowd as positive the Fed would hike rates - then they didnt and markets rocketed.

The data is clear, we are in a recession.

Alot of the issues you just named are symptoms of a strong dollar in my opinion (or atleast the strong dollar added to the damage).

In this article: GLD, BP, CHK, HAL, M, WMT
1 to 10 of 39 comments
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

AMSE AMERICAN SANDS ENERG
AROFF Africa Opportunity Fund
ARW.TSXV AROWAY MINERALS INC
AUY Yamana Gold Inc.
DDEJF DUNDEE CORP CL A
EGO Eldorado Gold Corporation
GDX Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF
GG Goldcorp Inc.
GORO Gold Resource Corporation
IAG IAMGOLD Corporation
IPT.TSXV IMPACT Silver Corp.
IVN Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.
KGC Kinross Gold Corporation
KSKTF KISKA METAL CORP
MAD.TSXV Miranda Gold Corp.
MNDJF MANDALAY RES CORP
PMNXF PERSEUS MINING
PRU.TSX PERSEUS
RCCMF Nippon Dragon Resources Inc.
RPMGF RYE PATCH GOLD CORP
SAM.TSX Starcore Intl Mine J
SAND Sandstorm Gold Ltd.
SLW Silver Wheaton Corp.
SMDZF STRATEGIC METALS LTD
TGCDF Teranga Gold Corp
TME.TSXV Temex Resources Corp.
UEC Uranium Energy Corp
VGQ.TSX Virginia Mines Inc J
XTM.TSXV Transition Metals Corp
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LATEST ACTIVITY

Adem Tumerkan
mungerisms Antifragile by N.Taleb
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RT Wolf_InTheWilds: 100% agree with Chanos on this. https://t.co/m3aNmdxnE8
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RT zerohedge: China’s Oil Demand Growth to Slow by 35% in 2018 From 2017: IEA
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PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
Gold, Bond, And Now Stock Investors Doubt The Fed
That is why we haven't seen gold drop below $1000. This is why long term bonds, like the 10 & 30 year, are falling while the Fed hikes. This is why the stock investors aren't fleeing from stocks offering higher yields and equities prices continue up.
Illinois Headed For Junk Rating And Its Just Beginning
Illinois has a defunct government that is at odds. They haven't had a state budget for over 700 days. And pension liabilities are out of control. Being junked will crippled their credit access. We have seen this picture before & it never ends well.
Clinton, Trump And Gold: Become Antifragile In A Fragile World
How will the election impact investors & what asset classes stand to benefit the most?
Lone Wolf Investing: Why Should You Listen Or Care About My Work?
There are 24 hours a day that individuals will never get back. In that case, what makes someone losing 10 minutes of their precious time to listen to me? What makes me different and worth listening too? How can I help investors become wealthier? Time will tell.

Work Experience

Research Analyst and Editor
Tailwinds Research
May 2017 - Present (8 months)
Analyst
Stansberry Research
October 2016 - March 2017 (6 months)

+ I performed research on our portfolio of stocks and wrote content.

+ I also wrote reports on potential new investment ideas.

+I contributed to idea generation along with aiding my fellow analysts and our editors. 

President
Diutinus, LLC
June 2014 - Present (3 years 7 months)

+ Portfolio structuring and consulting for private investors. 

+ Freelance writing and publishing for various columns and newsletters. 

+ Research and issue investment reports for clients. 

Education

Publications

Thoughts of a Speculator
Adem Tumerkan
Adem Tumerkan, Diutinus LLC
05/01/2015
Newsletter covering market commentary with satire, contrarian investment ideas, value investing and a focus on the resource sector and equities. Publication is bi-weekly and is 5 pages. $9.99 a month and an exclusive mailing list. Contact me for more information.
Stitches
Adem Tumerkan
Amazon
03/13/2015
Written in 2015, Stitches is a short story compilation book. It is raw, uncut, and deep as it tells tales of death, love, loss and heartbreaks with a numbing tone.

The books narrator tells us tragedy and humor that is shared between mortals of all ages. Simply written enough for everyone too relate.

"A very deep collection of the authors thoughts and experiences. The emotions expressed in the writings can be imagined, or felt whilst reading. Not like other books of a similar genre...very unique.....real is a word that comes to mind. The struggle to stay above water in a flooding world. I highly recommend it." - Tom Wallace