Adem Tumerkan | TalkMarkets | Page 1
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Contributor's Links: Speculators Anonymous
My name is Adem Tumerkan and I’m the analyst and editor at Speculators Anonymous. I’m a macro-speculator and a former market analyst that got tired of the mainstream financial industry (full details below). I’m LONG volatility, optionality, holistic thinking, cycles, and history — I’m SHORT ...more

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Are Banks Beginning To Choke On Their Commercial Real Estate Exposure?
Last April I wrote about the mounting fragility in the commercial real estate sector. And specifically how exposed the smaller-medium banks were. A poor market and higher interest rates are all weighing on the sector and whoever financed them.
“A Game Of Jenga”: Is The Subprime Auto Market Looking Fragile? I Believe So
Consumers are feeling the pressure of declining used vehicle prices, tighter credit, and declining wage growth. This trend may lead to a wave of defaults and increased negative equity, creating a feedback loop at the margin.
Holiday Insights: Turkeys, Snowflakes, And Economic Tipping Points
There’s over 600% more financial derivatives than actual global output. Worse is that the $630 trillion of derivatives may be nestled off-balance sheets and constitute concealed liabilities within the global banking system.
U.S. Household Debt Woes: Loan Delinquencies Rise As Excess Savings Evaporate
Credit data in the U.S. continues to indicate increasing fragility for the economy. Specifically in households.
China’s Deflation Problem: Impact On Companies, Local Governments, And Growth
It appears China’s unbalanced economy has finally caught up to it.
Navigating The Soft Landing Mirage – These Key Indicators Reveal The Hidden Truth
Fading consumer credit, sinking U.S. imports, and eroding corporate profits all indicate some issues.
Economic Tailwinds Fade: Excess Savings Depletion And Declining Lending Raises Concerns
Have no doubt, the massive $2.1-to-2.3 trillion build-up in consumer savings post-2020 is vanishing. And it’s nearly gone at this point.
Beware: U.S. Bank Credit Continues Declining – Increasing Global Fragility
While many media pundits focus on the conflicting jobs data and equity markets, there’s something else sending out warning signs.
China’s Looming Balance Sheet Recession: The Hidden Threat To Economic Growth
China’s economy is seemingly stuck. And it shouldn’t come as a surprise.
The Banking Issue: Shrinking Credit, Dwindling Deposits, And Greater Fragility Ahead
Courtesy of the Federal Reserve’s rapid tightening cycle, banks are still sitting on enormous unrealized losses.
Decoding The Inverted Yield Curve: Lessons From Knut Wicksell’s Natural Interest Rate Theory
The inverted yield curve is one phenomenon that can be explained through Wicksell’s natural interest rate theory.
The Perpetual Game: Saudi Arabia, OPEC, And Oil Markets Are Stuck In A Prisoner’s Dilemma
Oil would sink lower amid weaker global demand and fading momentum.
Unveiling The Fragile Global Economy: The Fading Credit Impulse
The global economy is growing ever more fragile as credit tightens everywhere. Leading to slower growth, asset price volatility, and deflation.
The Deflation Dilemma: Unmasking The Silent Threat That’s Increasing Economic Fragility
A look at the deflationary trend and why it’s increasing systemic fragility and shouldn’t be underestimated going forward
Raising The U.S. Debt Ceiling Is Going To Drain Liquidity
As the Treasury refills its coffers, liquidity drains from the banking system, further stressing the financial system.
Why The Austrian Business Cycle Theory Matters More Than Ever In Today’s Global Economy
The Austrian Business Cycle theory is an important concept that helps explain the cycles of boom and bust in the economy.
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