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EC Echo Chamber
It seems unlikely that this new Congress and President are inclined to make the difficult choices that might ultimately set the U.S. economy back on a path of healthy, self-sustaining growth
EC Villanova Vs. Kansas: Outcome Vs. Process Strategies
Winning a basketball pool has its benefits while the costs, if any, are minimal. Managing wealth, however, can provide great rewards but is fraught with severe consequences.
Second To None: Valuations Compared With Fundamentals
Given the declining trend of GDP and the correlation of earnings to GDP, it is fair to deduce that GDP and earnings growth trends were healthier in the late 1990’s than they are today.
The Sure Thing
Spot VIX, an indicator that conveys confidence or concern about future equity price moves, is near-record lows. This implies tremendous confidence that stock prices will indeed move higher.
Fed Up – A Look Behind The Curtain
Wealth inequality, wage stagnation, massive debt loads, feeble economic growth and weak productivity growth are but a few of the economic and social problems that are the legacy of poor monetary policy.
EC The Lowest Common Denominator: Debt
More debt and less discipline is not the solution to a pre-existing condition characterized by the same. The price tag for failing to acknowledge and address that reality rises exponentially over time.
EC Great Expectations
Many investors believe that the initiatives of the new administration will provide an economic spark. Although confidence is a cheap form of stimulus, reality is that the structural headwinds the economy faces are brisk.
Extrapolate At Your Own Risk
As we dig through S&P 500 price forecasts for the year 2017, we discover that a majority of “Wall Street’s top strategists”, are calling for a year-end S&P 500 price in the 2,300-2,450 range.
EC Hoover’s Folly
Ignoring warnings from global trade partners, the Smoot-Hawley act of 1930 placed tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. which resulted in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. It precipitated a trade war. Is another on the horizon?
EC Deception
Does the Federal Reserve, more so than the collective wisdom of millions of market participants, now think that it not only knows where interest rates should be but also what equity valuations are “normal”?
Banks In Drag: The Russell 2000 Exposed
Since Donald Trump won the election, the Russell 2000 (R2K) has been the darling of the market, increasing approximately 15%.
EC Mind Games
The greatest investors, those that make money when markets are rising and avoid the pain when bear markets occur, are a limited bunch.
A Narrative For Every Season
As investors, we must understand the popular narrative and respect it as it is a formidable short- term force driving the market. That said, we also must understand whether there is logic and truth behind the narrative.
EC The Inconvenient Truth Behind Donald Trump’s Victory
While there are many ways to show the deterioration of the U.S. economy and the consequences endured by its citizens, we selected charts we deem to be the most telling.
EC Passive Negligence
The stock market is an essential cornerstone of capitalism, not a game of roulette.
EC HH Earnings Magic Exposed
Since the beginning of the current quarter 76% of the 113 S&P 500 companies that have released earnings results have exceeded expectations. Unfortunately, few investors are paying attention to the measurement tool.
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