Michael Lebowitz Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Founding Partner - 720 Global and Partner at Real Investment Advice
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What Caused Chairman Powell To Flinch
Some will say the Fed, by delaying plans for rate hikes and reducing their balance sheet, avoided a hard landing in 2015 and 2016. They may have, but since then global economic and political instabilities have risen markedly.
Yes, Virginia…
This year, the 10th through 17th trading days are December 14th through the 26th. If 2018 plays out like the average of the past 28 years, there might be some extra goodies under the tree for those playing the Santa Rally.
United Technologies Faces Reality- Will Other Companies Follow Suit Before It’s Too Late
Corporate debt now stands at record levels versus GDP. While the debt has been used to fund expansion and R&D it has also been used to fund record numbers of share buybacks.
The Fed’s Mandate To Pick Your Pocket – The Real Price Of Inflation
Wealth is only accumulated when it grows faster than inflation.
Higher Rates Are Crushing Investors
What is the effect that higher yields are having on debt investors today?
Chairman Powell – You’re Fired
Although a President has never fired a Fed Chairman since its inception in 1913, the Fed’s independence has been called into question numerous times.
Defining Accommodative
The Fed manages the level of the fed funds rate to influence other interest rates and thus meet their congressionally mandated employment and price objectives for the U.S. economy. To do so, the Fed conducts various operations in the money markets.
EC Sailing Versus Rowing : Active Versus Passive
In the most recent bullish cycle the combination of market direction and the availability of index-friendly instruments like exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have resulted in an unprecedented shift towards passive strategies and securities.
15 Bullish Assumptions
If all goes well for nine more months, the post-financial crisis economic expansion will become the longest economic expansion in recent U.S. history.
A Walking Contradiction – Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett is without question the modern day icon of American investors. He has become a living legend, and the respect he receives is warranted.
We The People
Economic inequality is and always has been a feature of human existence. The degree of inequality ebbs and flows across time and geography but will never be eradicated because scarcity is also a permanent feature of human existence.
What Turkey Can Teach Us About Gold
Turkey is, so far, a relatively mild example compared to hyperinflationary episodes previously seen in Germany, Czechoslovakia, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe. These instances devastated the currencies and the wealth of the affected citizens.
Running On Empty
Judging by historically low-interest rates, investors, ourselves included, are not concerned that the U.S. government will default. Given the government has a printing press, we see little reason for such a concern.
The Weaponization Of The Dollar
If the market continues to stagnate as the dollar moves higher, we should turn our attention to the Administration for signs of rising concern over the value of the U.S. dollar.
Wicksell’s Elegant Model
As central bankers continue to espouse policies leading to market rates well-below the natural rate, then, contrary to their claims, structural economic growth will fail to accelerate and will actually continue to contract.
Whatever It Takes
Of greater concern is the macro picture that is emerging in Japan. If investors are starting to question the on-going ability of the BOJ to manage rates, it is not unreasonable to think that other central banks could be at risk.
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