Michael Lebowitz Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Founding Partner - 720 Global and Partner at Real Investment Advice
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As a strategic investment consultant, 720 Global focuses on enabling our clients, professional investment managers, to raise their quality of service and increase profitability. Our services provide you with expertise in capital markets, macroeconomic research and analysis, asset allocation, ... more


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EC Something Wicked This Way Comes: McDonald's – A Bear In A Bull Costume
Buybacks may boost the stock price in the short run but in the majority of cases they harm shareholder value in the long run. Data on MCD provides support for our conclusion.
The Illusion Of Prosperity
The financial crisis in 2008 fractured the economy in ways that are clearly evident today. Addressing the troubling debt burden has been postponed through extraordinary stimulus, but the problem has only grown in size.
Chasing The Dragon
The Federal Reserve (Fed) currently expects real economic growth for the foreseeable future to average below 2.00%. Japan, the United Kingdom, and the European region are forecasting an even more anemic pace.
Fed Gibberish
This past week there were two quotes by Fed members and one by the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) which were highly deserving of the tag #FedGibberish.
Consumption Exhaustion
The growth of public and private debt is occurring at a rate faster than wage growth or economic growth. Debt remains the single most important factor in assessing the outlook for the U.S. economy.
How Much Is Too Much
The amount of monetary stimulus increasingly imposed on the financial system creates false signals about the economy’s true growth rate, causing a vast misallocation of capital, impaired productivity and weakened economic activity.
A Peak Above All Others
“Valuations are still well below the peak of 1999” say the bulls.
Salt, Wampum, Benjamins - Is Bitcoin Next
Cryptocurrency is an independent, digital currency that uses cryptology to maintain privacy of transactions and control the creation of the respective currency.
An Indicator Of Peril
Three of the last four quarters have produced negative RVA levels. Real GDP is not producing similar results, having averaged 2% growth over the same quarters. RVA and Real GDP may not be well correlated over short time frames.
HH 22 Troublesome Facts
The S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) valuation has only been greater on one occasion, the late 1990s. It is currently on par with levels preceding the Great Depression.
High Yield IED
The high yield bond market has come to resemble an IED in the financial markets for investors with risks that are both disguised and highly destructive.
Decoding Yellen's Message
On July 12, 2017 in her semiannual testimony to Congress, Janet Yellen stated the following: "the Federal Funds rate would not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy stance."
EC The Fed’s Definition Of Price Stability Is Likely Different Than Yours
The Federal Reserve Act, as mandated by Congress, established a dual mandate of price stability and maximizing employment to guide the Federal Reserve (Fed) in setting monetary policy.
Clarity Or Confusion
The average rate of inflation (Core PCE) for the last 6-months is 1.82%, the average unemployment rate is 4.50% and the Fed Funds rate was just increased to 1.00% following 7 years at essentially 0.00%.
The Fog Of Markets
Janet Yellen, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, appears uncharacteristically determined to maintain a path of higher interest rates and has recently discussed the possibility of reducing the Fed’s balance sheet.
The Risk Spectrum
The best investment managers obsess not about what they hope to make on an investment but what they fear they could lose. At this juncture, current market dynamics offer a lot of reasons one should be concerned.
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