Since The Fed unveiled its cunning plan to unwind the balance sheet every so gradually and in an ever so well-telegraphed manner, the US Treasury yield has collapsed!

Banks do not care as the yield curve has crashed to its flattest since 2007...

In fact, the collapse to just 91bps places the yield curve right at the start of both of the last two recessions...

So, no! You do not need to invert the yield curve to see a recession - in fact we are already there!!