With crude production rebounding back to pre-Harvey levels, and refinery demand coming back on-line, WTI has trod water around $50 all week. The US oil rig count dropped for the 6th straight week (down 5 to 744), back at its lowest level since early June.

• *U.S. OIL RIG COUNT DOWN 5 TO 744 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US
• *U.S. GAS RIG COUNT UP 4 TO 190 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US

As Bloomberg reports, it looks like shale billionaire Harold Hamm might be right in saying U.S. producers are being more cautious than government output forecasts seem to imply.

At least that’s what the Baker Hughes weekly drilling report suggests, showing producers idled five oil rigs this week, adding to 19 parked over the previous five weeks.

The numbers released every Friday increasingly make it look like the drilling boom might have peaked, and that should impact output down the road.

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Shale drillers will be disciplined in how much they produce, Hamm, chief executive officer of Continental Resources Inc. and one of the pioneers of the shale revolution, said on Bloomberg TV Thursday.

The government projection of more than 1 million new barrels a day in U.S. production this year is "flat wrong" and distorting prices, he said.

Production continues to rebound as more of Texas comes back online (despite the stagnation of oil rig counts)...

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It’s going to come down to the November meeting and the market will be looking for not so much an extension of the deal, but deeper cuts, says Tariq Zahir, a New York-based commodity fund manager at Tyche Capital Advisors.

“We’ve been in a tight range the last couple of days, not really going anywhere and at the end of the day, winding up at the same prices”