WTI Crude Oil Market Update
Let's take a look into the WTI Crude Oil (spot price) market. As usual, we start out with the higher time frame perspective to figure out the path of least resistance. We will also show you the quarterly VWAP in action that we use in our trade methodology next to the monthly, weekly and daily VWAPs. However, firstly we should consider a look with plain candlestick bars starting with the monthly time-frame.
The market finally found balance in this area. We are bracketing around two months with a current test of the upper balance area. We'll see how the market will react to this level now.
Moving forward to the weekly bars chart, we can observe a one-time framing-higher behavior in the last three weeks inside of a clear balance area. Currently the market is testing the high of this bracket area. It will be interesting to see what will happen here. Will we see rejection or a continuation of the upside movement to test some higher prices?
On the daily perspective the market is testing a balance-area high as well. Important to note is the difference between various spot price data feeds. In this feed it appears we broke above the bracket high but on another data feed the market rejected the balance-area high. Take a look at the three charts here:
Click on picture to enlarge
Amazing, which one should we use now? For intra-day traders the one on the farv right would be the best choice as it is the current futures May contract price. For long-term traders the spot price feed would be better as relates to holding positions for several weeks or months. However, there are a lot of options like continuous or back-adjusted charts etc. but that's a story for another time.
Let's take a quick look with installed EMAs as well. On the weekly chart we can see that the market broke the first two short-term trend EMAs and is on the way to test the third one. The daily short-term trend is actually intact and with the break of the first longer-term trend 50 EMA it seems the market is moving higher to test the 100 EMA.
Well, let's moving forward to the Quarterly VWAP. With looking at this chart, we can see the market is trading above the developing value (whole blue area) as well as above the previous VWAP value close area. The VWAP slope of the developing value is also to the upside. We'll see how the market will react to the mentioned balance area high as this could lead us back to the developing value. Currently it appears we could still test some higher prices as there should be a lot of liquidity above the bracket highs.
Here is also a screenshot from the current TPO chart. You can read and learn more about this as well as about our intra-day trading approach on our trading community. Also, feel free to discuss about our top down technical analysis process. We looking forward to see you there!
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