I haven’t been impressed with the price action off the recent lows in gold and silver. Prices rally, but eventually fade and drop back to near-term support. I see little conviction from buyers. Consecutive closes above $1,200 are necessary before I consider labeling $1,170.30 the low.

The non-farm payroll numbers come out Friday morning at 8:30 AM and the Italian referendum is Sunday. One or both of these events must stimulate a sustained rally. Ideally, we will see a run to $1,230 or higher in gold by this time next week. If not, then the possibility of dropping back to the $1,000 level increases considerably.

-US DOLLAR- The dollar may be dropping into an interim low; solid closes beneath the 10-day EMA will confirm. We still expect prices to peak between 110-112 in the first quarter of 2017.

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-YEN- Prices made a swing low yesterday, and 88.25 could be the bottom. We need to see closes above the 10-day EMA and 90 to confirm the low.

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-GOLD- Daily gold prices need to close above $1,193 to make a price swing, but I’d prefer to see consecutive closes above the $1,200 level before labeling $1,170.30 as the bottom.

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-SILVER- Prices barely managed to produce a swing low today. Another positive close tomorrow will make the 4th consecutive day higher. Four white-candle closes in a row while producing a positive divergence often designates a bottom.

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-GDX- Prices made a swing low, but they are struggling to rise above the 10-day EMA. Not sufficient evidence of a bottom.

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-GDXJ- Still no close above the 10-day EMA in juniors.

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-SPY- I wanted to see stocks top yesterday, and we may be seeing a pullback now. Above 222.50 in SPY and the move could trend higher without pausing.

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-WTIC- Oil bounced yesterday, but I think prices will continue lower into the January cycle low. Above $49.20 and I’ll be forced to realize the cycle count. OPEC is meeting tomorrow.

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I’m going to continue to watch gold and silver for signs of a sustainable rally. The current price action appears to be more corrective in nature or possibly base building. I’ll consider going long futures once gold moves convincingly back above the $1,200 level.