Perhaps we'll have a clearer picture of direction on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a break one way or the other after President Trump decides by May 12 whether or not to recertify the JCPOA.

At the moment, it's trading within a tight range between 2620 and 2680, as shown on the daily chart below.

The momentum (MOM) indicator is in downtrend and trading below the zero level. The relative vigor index indicator (RVGI) is also in downtrend and is below zero, but has just formed a bullish crossover to the upside.

Any sustained breakout of the SPX to the upside will need to be confirmed by both indicators breaking and holding above their zero levels. Otherwise, it may be short-lived and followed by a sharp, swift drop.