What’s Behind The 20% Performance In Small Cap Stocks? More Importantly, Can It Continue?
Small cap stocks are having a stellar year with the Russell 2000 Index up nearly 20% year-to-date. In November, small caps outperformed large caps, as measured by the S&P 500, by roughly 9%, the strongest monthly performance in more than 15 years. What’s behind the rally — and more importantly, can it continue?
Written by Russ Koesterich, CFA (BlackRockBlog.com)
Many have pointed to the strong U.S. dollar to explain the small cap outperformance. The argument is a strong dollar supports America’s purchasing power, which helps smaller, domestically-focused companies while hurting larger, more export-oriented firms. This explanation has intuitive appeal, but it ignores two issues.
1. Historically weak relationship between the dollar and small cap relative performance.
- Since 2000 the relative performance of small caps versus large caps has actually had a low correlation with changes in the dollar.
- While the correlation was negative at one point, it has historically been weak, explaining less than 1% of monthly relative returns.
- In short, although commentators have attributed small caps’ outperformance to a rallying dollar, history suggests otherwise.
2. Surge in risk appetite.
- It is important to note that risky assets in general, not just small caps, have had a brilliant run. That reflects the change in sentiment we have seen.
- In fact, risk appetite, as measured by monthly changes in credit spreads, has had a much stronger correlation with the small cap relative performance than the dollar’s strength.
- Since 2000, monthly changes in high yield spreads have explained roughly 10%-15% of small caps’ relative performance.
Can the small cap rally continue?
Going forward small caps face two significant headwinds.
- The small cap rally is more likely to go on if credit spreads continue to tighten.
- Unfortunately, a stronger dollar is also a de facto form of monetary tightening, and a further rise in the dollar suggests that spreads are more likely to widen than contract.
- The second headwind is valuation. The recent rally has occurred at a time when small caps — along with the rest of the U.S. market — are already expensive.
- Following the recent gains, the Russell 2000 Index is now trading at roughly 47x trailing price-to-earnings (P/E), compared to a five-year average of approximately 39x and, as with the broader U.S. equity market, recent gains have been driven by multiple expansion — investors willing to pay more per dollar of earnings — only more so.
- Since the lows in early 2016, the trailing P/E on the Russell 2000 is up by more than 40%. In contrast, while large cap stocks have also undergone significant multiple expansion, the P/E on the S&P 500 is up less than 25% from the 2016 bottom. (All data are from Bloomberg, as of 11/28/2016.)
Conclusion
Yes, small caps may continue to advance on other factors, notably an ongoing rally in bank shares (the Russell 2000 has a heavier weighting to banks). That said, a further advance in the dollar, while a headwind for large cap exporters, is not necessarily a tailwind for small caps. Instead, with valuations stretched and 2017 earnings expectations already aggressive, investors are really betting on continued animal spirits and a benign credit market.
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