What Is A Slav? What Is Google Storage?

Among the fake promises on the web, the worst is from gmail: "No messages in the Trash. Who needs to delete when you have so much storage?"

But I don't have enough storage. We are still being barraged by Asian character denial of service messages sent via the website, www.global-investing.com, probably from China. We also get lots of spam because the website is accessible to the world. I get offers of everything from Nigerian inheritances against a tiny payment up front to ways to raise our position in search engines higher and higher than we deserve.

So mail is being bounced. Our reporters have been able to tell me about this using my personal e-mail which is not public. Or by telephoning. Some of you may have had problems contacting me. I am working on getting the system up and running. Readers and subscribers do not pick up the phone if they get bounced e-mails and they don't have my personal e-mail address.

So just so you know, I am still around, still in business. The problem is that my gmail account does not have as much storage as google claims.

What is a Slav? What are Slavs is Russia is protecting from Ukrainians? Alexander Lukashenko, about whom more is offered to paid subscribers below, claims that Russian snatched Crimea to defend Russians and Slavs.

Ukrainians are Slavic just as Russians, Bulgarians, Serbs, and Belorussians are, but not always Orthodox Christians like them.

Poles, Czechs, Slovaks, Slovenes, Croats, and Bosnian Herzegovians are also Slavs but not Orthodox Christians. Mr Lukashenko, who is of partial Ukrainian heritage and who bears a Ukrainian last name (although he has run Belarus for nearly two decades) surely knows that Russia's takeover of the Crimea cannot have been in defense of Slavs.

This usage takes us back to the Slavophile anti-Westerner movement which Czarist Russian Empire acted upon in the mid-19th century.

In fact Lukashenko does know that Ukrainians are Slavs and is criticizing Moscow between the lines which has important impact on our portfolio. More on this for paid subscribers along with  news from Mongolia, Mexico, Ukraine, Belarus, Canada, Ireland, Israel, India, The Netherlands, South Africa, and Hong Kong.

*The price of the April Tampa ammonia contract was settled at $580 per metric tonne, a whopping $120 above the March contract. It also is about $10-20 over the global price according to analysts at Bank of Nova Scotia. Farmgate fertilizer prices are up as spring planting gets near. Some experts expect that ammonia prices may again hit the $800 level seen last year. Plains state prices are now $560-595/tonne but already the US Dept of Agriculture says Illinois average price levels are much higher, up to $663/tonne. Agrium is currently trading at US$95.77 (add ~10% for loonies,) up 2.33% today.

Martin Ferera writes:

Ammonia prices are sharply higher, because troubled Ukraine produces ammonia, and from growing industrial and agro demand, plus US logistics bottlenecks. This should help Agrium, a large ammonia producer. However PAG (ed: BNS's private advisory group) says AGU is near its sell target of C$105-110, and they suggest lightening up or top-slicing.

China contracted with Ukraine for long-term supplies. If output fals in the current chaos, agricultural commodities will cost a lot more, further benefiting AGU given its retail North American and Australian network. However, short term, after bumper American harvests, fertilizer sales may fall.

Vivian adds: the Ukraine crisis is also affecting the cartel running another fertilizer also produced by AGU, potash. The president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, which began producing potash flat-out about 6 months ago at his orders, on Sunday said to told reporters in Minsk:

"As a person, not as a politician, I think Ukraine should remain an integral, indivisible , non-aligned state.

"Would you like it if a state's sovereignty is breached? But who pushed toward that? When Russia saw how the Russian, Slavic world was being stifled [it] interfered immediately. (Ed: Ukrainians are Slavic just as Russians, Bulgarians, Serbs, and Belorussians are, but not always Orthodox Christians. Poles, Czechs, Slovaks, Slovenes, Croats, and Bosnian Herzegovians are also Slavs but not Orthodox Christians.) Back to Lukashenko:

"Crimea is not dangerous because it has become part of Russia, but [because] a bad precedent has been created. You can recognize it, not recognize it, but it doesn't change anything. It is now a de facto part of Russia."

He also promised to support the new Ukrainian government after it is elected, noting that the two countries trade $7 bn of goods annually.

While he had Russia send some planes to protect his 20-year-old dictatorship, his remarks count as backdoor criticism of Russia and defense of his own regime. Lukashenko is of part-Ukrainian heritage himself and has a Ukrainian last name.

While ammonia prices are up, potash and urea are flat. Phosphates are also higher for near-term deliver (up $10 to $487 wholesale, and $555-585 retail) but $60 lower if the farmer can wait till summer.

Given all the confusion on what to do we will continue to buy AGU and if the Scotia sales hit the share price buy more.

We also own a new player in Canada, Allana Potash, AAA, ALLRF, which will mine potash in Ethiopia.

*Canadian Solar, having fallen Monday, is back on track after ReneSolayesterday reported profits after a dearth of at least two years. CSIQ gains whenever one of its Chinese competitors returns to business as normal (from chasing customers with bargains).

*Paddy Power plc reported to the Dublin Stock Exchange that HSBC has acquired 5.149% of PDYPF's stock.. More on Paddy below.

*Schlumberger Ltd. hit a new 52-wk high today. It is relatively underweight the sinking North American oil and gas search markets, as I wrote yesterday. 80% of its business is elsewhere.

*However, Anton Oilfield Services Group ADR continues to fall. ATONY is also not affected by North American glut and frankly is not dependent for sales on Chinese GNP rising (as per the purchasing managers' index) but on Beijing's clean air policy to replace filthy coal power stations.

*Ituran Location and Controls, which makes tracking systems for rental cars and truck fleets, has a side business supplying the Israeli missile defense system (which uses off-the-shelf software to block bombs sent by Gaza zealots to hit Israel.) ITRN is up another 1.7% today, hitting a new high of $25.24+. I wish it wasn't such a good business.

*Dr Reddy's Pharma fell 0.87% in India trading today. I warned yesterday about Indian rep damage, higher R&D spending on biologic drugs, and pre-election political uncertainty and illusion. RDY also apparently lacks blockbuster scale drugs for the US market now and faces imposition of price cuts in India, according to local analysts. So there is more to come.

*Pure Technologies (PUR-TSX; PPEHF) is up 4% today. No news I can find. It is a small cap penny stock. Volatile. Read on.

*Bank of Montreal today downrated Cameco to market perform from outperform after Forum Uranium began its drilling in nearby Athabasca northwest near CCJ's Millennium deposit. Your editor doesn't plan to sell. By the way I also own a US uranium mining stock not in the model portfolio. I am a Nuclear Nut.

Fund notes follow:

*Africa Opportunity Fund is up another 3% today. As noted earlier, and as I wrote prematurely, it is moving to the main London Stock Exchange. This to issue C shares which will be convertible into AROFF stock which trades in London as AOF, also in dollars. The current price is $1.34/sh; we paid $1.19 four months ago. It is unclear if we will get pre-emptive rights to C shares with the ADR.

*New Ireland Fund reported on its unaudited portfolio as of the end of Jan, its Q1. The largest holding was Ryannair at 16.5% well down from the prior report. Here are other IRL positions:

company, sector stake

CRH (construction material) 16.5

Kerry Group (dairy products) 10.6

Arzyta (food) 9.2

Kingspan (construction) 4.7

Mincon (industrial goods) 4.6

Bank of Ireland (bank) 4.6

CPL Resources (business support) 4.6

Smurfit Kappa (forest products) 4.6

Irish Continental (transport) 3.9

Paddy Power now accounts for under 2% of IRL.

*Martin also writes about Mongolia Growth Fund MNGGF (YAK in Canada), up sharply Monday.

"I re-checked the roadshow dates and it's a week away. Share volume is up heavily at 74,700 vs the daily average of 28,600. New CEO Paul Byrne when he joined a month ago agreed to initially invest C$250,000, which got him 125,000 shares at the then-price of C$2. Today it hit C$2.93, a nice profit."

*Mexican REIT Fibra Uno (BMV: FUNO11; FBASF) will hold conference calls with investors to present proposed changes to its fee structure: establishing an equity-based employee compensation plan which is to replace the earlier performance-linked plan; issuing new CBFIs, (Certificados Bursatiles Fiduciarios Inmobiliares, probably new shares I guess) to fund acquisitions of portfolios or to be sold via public offerings for this purpose. Investors may get to vote on the proposals later. I am not sure if we have pre-emptive rights in Mexico. The first conference call will be Mar 25 (tomorrow) at noon Mexico City Time, (Toll Free):877-407-9205, 2 pm EST. They will talk in English so maybe I will know moretomorrow. A contact in Mexico warns they are hoping to get this stuff through without any US interference. Not likely when I'm on the case.

*Reader TG complains of air sickness or vertigo because of the sharp moves of Naspers. NPSNY is tracking Tencent, TCTZF of which it owns ~30%. For stock market volatility Dr Vivian recommends not dramamine but  an ETF. I take Powershares Ultra Vix Short-Term Futures ETF, UVXY when I get upset at volatility. It is not specific to South Africa or Hong Kong moves so this is not a global-investng.comrecommendation. The big UVXY negative is that at tax time it is hard to report on. And it is leveraged so you probably don't want to buy and hold for long if volatility is dropping. And it costs 1.56% in fees, in part because of that leverage. And it often (like today) trades at a discount to NAV despite being an ETF.

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