It seems everyone is waiting for Trump's promised tax free repatriation of overseas revenue. This windfall is expected to be deployed into stock buy backs.

The question is whether the expected repatriation is already built into current stock prices. If so, then it will be a sell-the-news event.

Wednesday - The Medium-Term Trend

The market has strengthened since the last review.

I am watching the 70-level of this bullish percent. No signs of weakness on this chart, but it does look extended.

The 20-day average is in blue, price in black. They are moving in a fashion that supports prices. At this point in a cycle, you would expect these to be headed in different directions.

I don't have any other charts that are worth posting. We just have to watch and wait to see how this plays out.

My guess is that something will happen just when we all get too comfortable and stop watching. Or when we re-deploy cash because we just can't stand listening to the next door neighbor talk about the fortune he is making.

Sectors

No changes to this spreadsheet although emerging markets are right on the edge of re-joining the leaders.

This is a good looking chart, but I prefer to potentially miss the move rather than buy at this point.

Russia showed signs of breaking down last week, and so far this week it has continued. Although, I have seen much worse charts than this.

It may just be a pullback after a strong move, but RSX and XLE are closely correlated. XLE has been heading lower for awhile, so it is no surprise to see RSX weakening too.

Small cap biotech has been disappointing this week. This trend is not convincing, but maybe it is building a consolidation base.