US CB Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 5,000 households regarding their opinion of the economy. Its release often has a strong impact on market prices. A higher reading than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/JPY.

Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

The CB Consumer Confidence Index provides a snapshot of the level of confidence among US consumers. Analysts carefully follow the indicator, as consumer confidence often translates into consumer spending, a key component of economic growth.

The indicator jumped to 114.1 points in February, above the estimate of 111.3 points. Another strong reading is expected for September, with a forecast of 113.9 points.

Sentiments and levels

In the US, the Fed has sent clear signals that it is projecting two more rate hikes this year. This has disappointed the markets and lowered investors’ appetite for risk. Still, the US economy continues to perform well, and monetary divergence favors the US dollar. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on USD/JPY towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 114.63, 112.53, 110.83, 109.18 and 107.49

5 Scenarios  

1. Within expectations: 110.0 to 118.0: In such a case, USD/JPY is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
2. Above expectations: 118.1 to 122.0: An unexpected higher reading can send USD/JPY above one resistance level.
3. Well above expectations: Above 122.0: Another sharp increase in consumer confidence could propel the pair above two or more resistance levels.
4. Below expectations: 106.0 to 109.9: A reading lower than forecast could send USD/JPY below one support level.
5. Well below expectations: Below 106.0: An unexpected weak reading could push the pair below two or more support levels.

For more on USD/JPY, see the USD/JPY forecast.