US Session Bullet Report

EURUSD as well as GBPUSD and commodity currencies rebounded versus the USD during the European Session in a relative quiet fashion. In EZ, German PPI posted a decline of 0.4% however the key data will be US building Permits and Housing Starts later on.

Key for Thursdays ECB meeting were the German inflation numbers that showed another month of deflation at -0.4% versus -0.1% expected. With these numbers the ECB will be under a lot of pressure to respond (more will be analyzed in this week’s hot topic theme). The ECB has bought hundreds of billions since March this year under QE, but the economy hasn’t responded. Analysts expect an additional move before the end of the year (December most likely), but traders should not discount the possibility of further stimulus at the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. If the ECB does make a move on Thursday, we can expect the euro to lose ground against the dollar.

For the day, the strongest currency is the AUD which was boosted by RBA minutes overnight followed by NZD and CAD. The weakest is the JPY with USDJPY (+0.24%) at 119.75

Trading Quote of the Day:

“Have the patience to wait, the courage to get out and the integrity to follow your plan” – John Carter
Green lines are resistance, Red lines are support EURUSD

EUR/USD
Pivot: 1.1395
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.1395 with targets @ 1.134 & 1.1305 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.1395 look for further upside with 1.145 & 1.1495 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks upward momentum.

GBPUSD

Pivot: 1.541
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.541 with targets @ 1.551 & 1.5565 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.541 look for further downside with 1.537 & 1.5325 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.

AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.7305
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.7305 with targets @ 0.724 & 0.7225 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.7305 look for further upside with 0.7345 & 0.738 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks upward momentum.

USDJPY

Pivot: 119.15
Likely scenario: Long positions above 119.15 with targets @ 119.9 & 120.2 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 119.15 look for further downside with 118.9 & 118.6 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.

USDCAD
Pivot: 1.2975
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.2975 with targets @ 1.305 & 1.308 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.2975 look for further downside with 1.29 & 1.285 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed and calls for caution.

USDCHF

Pivot: 0.9585
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.9585 with targets @ 0.9475 & 0.945 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.9585 look for further upside with 0.9615 & 0.9645 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is badly directed.

GOLD

Pivot: 1180
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1180 with targets @ 1167 & 1163 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1180 look for further upside with 1184.5 & 1190 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1180 is resistance, likely decline to 1167.

OIL

Pivot: 46.6
Likely scenario: Short positions below 46.6 with targets @ 45.23 & 44.6 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 46.6 look for further upside with 47 & 47.5 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

DAX

Pivot: 10210
Likely scenario: Short positions below 10210 with targets @ 9970 & 9885 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 10210 look for further upside with 10300 & 10340 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.