US Session Bullet Report – USD Mixed But Gold Remains Strong
US Session Bullet Report
The EUR did not manage to advance further despite early indications that USD was under pressure. The pair was sold off at 1.1280 area and is trading just shy of 1.12 now. On the contrary GBPUSD is trading at session lows (1.5160) following disappointing PMI numbers.
The BoE meets on Thursday to decide interest rates. The last nonfarm payrolls report shows that the US economy created only 142k jobs in September while economists were looking for a reading of 201k. Even worse, the previous figure was downwardly revised to 136k from 173k. The likelihood for October fell to 10% while the odds of a lift-off in December dropped to about 25%.
Whereas currency pairs versus the USD are a mixed bag, in equities, indices are having their best day in weeks. Disappointing jobs data out of the US on Friday helped fuel speculation of a delay in Fed rate liftoff.
Despite a strong day for GOLD on Friday, further advance was halted. Gold recorded its fifth consecutive quarterly loss, the worst series of declines since 1997, on predictions of rate increase by the Fed since the shiny metal provides no interest to its holders. With the possible delay of the Fed’s liftoff decision, gold should have some room to rise.
Trading quote of the day:
Date them, don’t marry them (losing positions)
EURUSD
Pivot: 1.128
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.128 with targets @ 1.1195 & 1.1145 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.128 look for further upside with 1.1335 & 1.1385 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is badly directed.
GBPUSD
Pivot: 1.5165
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.5165 with targets @ 1.5245 & 1.529 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.5165 look for further downside with 1.514 & 1.5105 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.
AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.7035
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.7035 with targets @ 0.7115 & 0.715 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.7035 look for further downside with 0.7 & 0.6975 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.
USDJPY
Pivot: 119.75
Likely scenario: Long positions above 119.75 with targets @ 120.35 & 120.65 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 119.75 look for further downside with 119.45 & 119.2 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.
USDCAD
Pivot: 1.3175
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.3175 with targets @ 1.306 & 1.3 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.3175 look for further upside with 1.322 & 1.325 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish..
USDCHF
Pivot: 0.968
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.968 with targets @ 0.9755 & 0.9795 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.968 look for further downside with 0.963 & 0.958 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.
GOLD
Pivot: 1122.5
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1122.5 with targets @ 1141.25 & 1148.5 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1122.5 look for further downside with 1112 & 1105 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
OIL
Pivot: 45.2
Likely scenario: Long positions above 45.2 with targets @ 46.33 & 46.9 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 45.2 look for further downside with 44.65 & 44 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
DAX
Pivot: 9295
Likely scenario: Long positions above 9295 with targets @ 9790 & 9890 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 9295 look for further downside with 9130 & 8895 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.
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