With layoffs surging, ISM surveys slumping, and earnings collapsing, the incessant down-trend in initial jobless claims - to 43 year lows - seems aberrant at best and manipulated at worst. However, the tide may be turning as last week's 17k surge to 274k (the biggest WoW jump since January 2015)  begins to catch up claims to reality...

As we detailed earlier, the initial claims data doesn't fit with Challenger-Grey layoffs...

Doesn't fit with Services Employment...

And doesn't fit with US company earnings expectations...

So just what does the government's initial jobless claims represent in reality? Or is today's spike the start of the end of Obama's miracle 'recovery'?