The Trump Card?

outlook20161113

In our October 30 edition of market outlook, we highlighted that several months of market consolidation coagulating just a few percent from market highs was a recipe for something big to happen with the presidential elections as the tipping point. Seismic and cosmic shifts were underway. Copper was breaking out, bonds topping, cash levels high and the market was looking technically weak.

We weren’t clear of the fundamentals but lesson learned from the trading pits is follow the tape and find the reasons later. Sometimes you get the trade right for the wrong reasons. Anyone who bought stocks expecting an easy Clinton win made good money for the wrong analysis.

The obvious conclusion based on market behavior before the election was that a Trump win would trigger a massive selloff. It did, but it lasted long enough to trigger a- 5% rout overnight until the markets opened here in the US. It then set off the shocker monster rally for US Equities. For most it was not enough time to book a profit from short plays.

That rally itself was a surprise and the standout winners even more so.  Here are some conclusions from early market “polls” by the end of this week.

First and foremost, domestic stocks as represented by the Russell 2000 (IWM) roared and put in its best performance in years up over 10% for the week. Regional banks rose over 15%. The Dow Industrials hit new all-time highs, up +3.96% for the week and now approaching 19,000.

Even more amazing is how the International equities market dropped with Mexico plummeting over -12.18 %.

The reaction on a worldwide basis was shock and awe in just how fast the US has shifted its political ideologies from classic liberal to alt-right. The global markets made a primal scream by yelling that Trump is good for the United States and bad for most of the world. Winner takes all. In the Asian region, only kangaroos and Aussie’s remained unscathed. And Russia, our new budding ally, was the big winner in Europe.

The dollar gained against virtually every major currency except the pound. Gold, the alternative currency and safe haven during geo political stress but most sensitive to higher rates, plummeted -5.88% this week under pressure from rising rates.

Speaking of higher rates, the prospect of spending to build infrastructure caused fixed income to get hit hard. Copper moved up over 12% while some copper stocks (FCX) jumped over 30%. This is not surprising considering Trumps appetite for building stuff of which base metals are a key component.

How wrong were the political pundits, most markets players and the market itself regarding a Trump win? The huge lingering question is, are the early polls that Mr. Market just took after the election correct?  Is the big win for the US a detriment to the rest (except kangaroos and Putin) of the world?  Will it last?

Can Trump navigate thru a geo-political crisis? Can equities markets deal with sharply rising rates? Is this just a blow off topping rally caused by huge cash levels coming back in while shorts get royally squeezed?

Sector rotation is underway. Here’s a link to a special live training we held last Thursday on how you can anticipate the next market moves in what looks like a new world order. That video also covers just what the dentist is doing to FANG.

For more on specific levels and market internal let’s take gander at the usual weekly market outlook video.

Video length: 00:18:10

Disclosure: None

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