The Short-Term Trend - Thursday, July 12

Don't get too bullish on stocks while this index is below resistance, and below the 50-day. Also, it looks like the June peak was a slightly lower-high.

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I am sure you already know this, but the SPX is up against resistance which I think is the breakdown point after the January peak. 

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Commodities, Currencies

What is this spreadsheet telling us?

The out-performance of the US Dollar continues to widen against all the major currencies. This means that for near-term performance, stock holdings should be US focused and away from foreign stocks.

The outlook for commodities is unusual with only Energy performing well, and most other commodities performing poorly. This means staying away from commodity-related stocks except for energy, and even the energy-related stocks are a question mark in my mind. 

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The charts of the Energy ETFs are not that great looking. This chart below is spotty, although if it were to show a clean break out to new highs then I might be tempted. 

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This chart shows a similar choppy, uncertain looking pattern. But a solid break out higher would put it into a more bullish looking uptrend.

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The price of Copper is often mentioned as a barometer of global economic strength. At the moment, it doesn't look so good. All three of the following charts basically say the same thing...

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Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. My comments above reflect my view of the market, and what I am doing with my accounts. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy, ...

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