The Race To Not Buy At The Highs Nor Sell At The Lows

The Bull, by a wide margin, is the front runner in the last leg of the relay race. However, there are no fresh runners for him to pass the baton to.

The Bear, running from behind at a moderate pace, has BEARly broken a sweat.

This year, I have been busily working on a series of cartoons that depict the financial markets.

In early 2017, I will introduce to you the crux of my cartoons’ subject-The Modern Family. Yes! You will soon have a face to go along with Granddad Russell, Grandma Retail, Prodigal Son Regional Banks, Sister Semi’s, Big Brother Biotechnology and Trans Transportation.

Some of my other cartoons, such as the one above, highlight topics in a book I plan to publish in the spring 2017.

Today, I take the cartoon out for a test-drive.

Why today?

Because, I have spent the last week of November preparing you for this December race.

What race exactly?

The race to not buy at the highs nor sell at the lows-how many typical amateur’s run the trading race.

How far to the finish line?

Recently, I highlighted the top of the channel in the Russell 2000 at 134. I highlighted the bottom of the monthly channel in the 20+ Year Treasury Bonds at 118.55-119.

I led you to think about the two most vulnerable Modern Family members, Granny Retail (XRT) and Biotechnology (IBB).
Last night I wrote, “clearly, the diversion among the sectors and the monthly channel points suggest anxiety and confusion.”

I also directed you to think about perception versus reality.

Today, it seems reality set in. Semiconductors took out the trading range of the last 12 days in one fell swoop. The Russell 2000 looks like that move to 126 might be nigh after all.

Retail broke the monthly moving average. Biotechnology broke the 200 daily moving average and headed into a Distribution phase.

What we don’t see in the cartoon are some of the other runners also trying to cross the finish line.

Besides our Bull and Bear racers include, Deflation and Inflation (they run together joined by a short leash).

Also, Big Banks and Transportation, Janet Yellen and Interest Rates. Employment Numbers and, last but not least, the Italian tag team Renzi and Draghi.

Who, from the bleachers, cheers our racers on?

Oil cheers for inflation. USO and friends continued to rise after the OPEC news.

Other fans in support of a weaker U.S. Dollar hold up their signs.

Gold and Miner bugs man the First Aid station to patch up bloody knees and send metals back into the race.
Meanwhile, revelers booed Agricultural (Corn, Wheat) and Soft (Coffee, Sugar) commodities after they put in another poor performance.

With Auld Lang Syne and the finish line within our midst, remember that now is the time to pace yourself, hydrate, and breathe.

S&P 500 (SPY) Unless this clears 221.83, 218 support and 220 pivotal.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 131.70 resistance. A correction to 126 might be in store unless this retakes 134.

Dow (DIA) Inside day. 190 pivotal

Nasdaq (QQQ) Confirmed warning phase. 116.70 resistance

KRE (Regional Banks) New 2016 high. Yet, if this gaps lower beware

SMH (Semiconductors) Opened under 70.96 and never looked back. Unconfirmed warning phase.

IYT (Transportation) 161.00 support.

IBB (Biotechnology) Another visit to the 200-week moving average. Must hold or else

XRT (Retail) 45.50 the monthly support broke. Could see a move down to 42.00 if cannot recapture that area

GLD (Gold Trust) 109-110 target or at least place to risk to if holds

GDX (Gold Miners) Still like the potential bottoming pattern against 20.00

USO (US Oil Fund) 10.80 the new support area to hold

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) If the channel does what it could, it will fail the bottom, trap the bears and then head right back above for a rally. Today, it did if holds.

UUP (Dollar Bull) Correction time unless clears 26.34

Disclosure: None. 

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