The Nasdaq Has Its Best August Since 2000

Nasdaq - Mixed Friday Market

Nasdaq - The stock market was mixed on Friday as the Dow was down 9 basis points, the S&P 500 was up one basis point. The Nasdaq was up 0.26%, and the Russell 2000 was up 0.48%.

VIX was down 4.95%. As you would expect with that type of action, the dollar index rallied.

The dollar index was up 0.42% to $95.10. If the dollar index regains its momentum and pushes to new bull market highs, the S&P 500 won’t be able to increase much.

Also, if the dollar index closes the year at $97 or higher, I think it would be almost impossible for the S&P 500 to be up more than 10% for the year.

The Dow and the S&P 500 were up 2.1% and 3% this month, making their gains the highest in August since 2014.

Nasdaq was up 5.7% which was the best August gain since 2000. That’s interesting because the Nasdaq peaked in March 2000. That was a temporary rally in a bear market.

Apple played a big part in each indexes’ gain as it was up an astounding 12.97% in August. There is intense optimism about the new iPhones which will be announced early in September and released in the following weeks.

The worst sector was energy which was down 0.73%. And the best sectors were real estate and consumer discretionary which were up 0.42% and 0.37%.

Consumer discretionary sector was helped by Amazon which was up 0.52%. Energy was down because oil was down 45 cents to $69.80.

It ended the month up 1.5%. The CNN Fear and Greed index fell even though the VIX was down and stocks were up. It fell from 73 to 71 and still signals greed.

Nasdaq - Friday Treasury Update

The 2-year treasury yield was down 2 basis points to 2.63%; it is down from its recent peak of 2.68% which also tied the cycle peak. Generally, expectations for rate hikes are correlated with the 2-year yield. This means when expectations for hikes increase, the yield increases.

This was the case on Friday as the chance for 2 more hikes fell slightly from 72% to 71.2%. It’s still above the 70% market which is necessary for hikes to occur. The 10-year yield was up one basis point to 2.86%.

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