The Medium-Term Trend

Here is the chart of the day. The SOXX formed a base and then broke out and into new highs.

This is the index that the market loves to follow, so I removed all the red from my outlook... for now. I don't want to be the guy fighting the trend.

 

There are other charts that look like they are ready for new highs. Here is another interesting looking base.

 

Foreign and commodity-related ETFs were all very strong today.

 

The Medium-Term

The market is grinding higher. Most of my medium-term indicators are now confirming to the upside. That doesn't rule out a whipsaw, but with the market pushing towards a new high it is better to admit that I missed this turn in the market.

 

The NASDAQ has been the real force behind the recent market strength, but now the NYSE looks ready to join the party, maybe?

 

Here is a caution signal for the bulls. The index in the top panel looks like it might be building strength for a pop into new highs.

But the bottom panel looks more like it is holding on as long as it can until the next drop lower. We saw this same pattern late 2014, I think, and eventually the weak Transports led the market lower. But it took quite a few months for that to play out.

 

We are in that late stage where people just don't believe it any more that a significant market sell off is possible. Or they believe it, but they just don't want to sit in cash while everyone else makes money (sounds more like me).

At some point, we will get a correction and I bet it will be related to this chart. Either it makes a miraculous reversal and heads higher which would give the Fed the green light for higher rates. Or, it continues to head lower from here and we see market stress that finally gives way similar to August-2015.

 

The Leader List

India and the Semiconductors are both back in the leader list. The Semiconductors have been strong for a long time, and I just can't bring myself to buy at these prices.

 

I prefer this chart that is just starting to make its way higher. There is less downside risk.

 

 

Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. My comments above reflect my view of the market, ...

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