The Market’s Bulging Belly Defies Heat And Gravity

What’s wrong with this picture?

In 90-degree heat, a grown man wears dark colors, long sleeves, jeans and hiking boots.

His bulging belly, which should defy holding up a hula hoop, keeps it circling regardless. He appears serene in his own, might I say alternate world.

After Tuesday’s crash and Wednesday’s dash, Thursday tested the bull’s bulging belly’s ability to keep the hula circling.

Nasdaq and Semiconductors return to unconfirmed Warning Phases.

The money rotated into Financials and Regional Banks, both of which now confirmed a Bullish Phase.

Last night I wrote about the great feedback this week’s action offers you and your trading strategies.

I shared with you that in our discretionary model, we lost two longs using breakeven sell stops.

I mentioned that our feedback comes in the way of planning sell stops in case the market tanks again.

To date, the other long positions (and one short) haven’t stopped us out.

Yet the positions, profitable from original entries, lost mark to market.

Should we worry?

Or, should we emulate our happy hula man existing as die hard bulls serene in an alternate universe?

I also wrote last night about one of those positions we did not lose, the Brazil ETF or EWZ.

For consistency’s sake, I report that we are still in it today. Although mark to market (closing price to closing price) we gave back a bit of the profits, the entry level is lower than today’s closing price.

But what about the rest of the market?

As tempting as it is to call a top, my go-to’s are still in decent shape.

The Russell 2000 held 140.

Indeed, the top of the channel resistance at 142.90 area looks further away. However, with the end of June tomorrow, a close above 140 most likely means the market is not done.

A close below 140 and even with support all the way down to 133.50, the likelihood of IWM visiting that level increases.

Hand in hand or hula in hula with IWM is Transportation, IYT.

IYT defends 170. Not too shabby.

Semiconductors went back into an unconfirmed warning phase. Though, from the peak high near 90.00, SMH has fallen by 10%. A solid correction.

Therefore, I would not be surprised to see it hold today’s lows. At least for now.

Biotechnology (IBB) held 310. That’s ok.

Regional Banks (KRE) has overhead resistance. Over 56.00 though, that chart begins to convince us that the rally is real.

Finally Granny Retail (XRT) held 40.00. In spite of her weak relative strength to the rest of the Family, I’m ok with that too.

What’s right with that picture?

The man does not give a hoot about what anyone else thinks about him.

That’s the only way to trade this market-forget the opinions of others and trade with a solid, consistent strategy.

After all, one man’s bulging belly is another man’s hula hoop advantage.

S&P 500 (SPY) 244-245 resistance to clear. 242 pivotal Under 240 not so good

Russell 2000 (IWM) I’d still consider the channel based on how June ends. 142.90 the number to watch. 140 pivotal. 137.50 support

Dow (DIA) 214 now pivotal. 212 some support. Over 215, onto new highs

Nasdaq (QQQ) Unconfirmed warning phase. 140 resistance. If fails 137.70 on a closing basis for the month trouble.

KRE (Regional Banks) Confirmed bullish phase. Must hold 54.75 clear 56.00

SMH (SemiconductorsUnconfirmed warning phase. 83.50 pivotal resistance. 80.75 support.

IYT (Transportation) 169.50 first line in the sand to hold. Through 172.90 impressive

IBB (BiotechnologyHeld at 310 perfectly keeping this in the game.

XRT (Retail) 40.00 pivotal-above 41 better

IYR (Real Estate) If holds 79.50 better

XLU (Utilities) Exit from utes means confidence. Today, held the 100 DMA.

GLD (Gold Trust) Like if holds 118 and clears 120

GDX (Gold Miners) Those negative sloping moving averages are relaying more possible weakness to come.

XME (S&P Metals and Mining) 29.90 is key on a weekly closing basis

USO (US Oil Fund) 9.00 held so now becomes the line in the sand for the buyers

TAN (Solar Energy) 19.19 should now hold if good. Must close above 20.00 to keep going.

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 126 pivotal-next support at 124

UUP (Dollar BullEuro flying which I did give you a head’s up on last week. Now, 24.90 resistance

FXI (China) Good setup if holds 39.35

Disclosure: None.

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