The Market Wrangles Crocodiles

Wrangler has multiple meanings.

The definitions range from one who is in charge of animals to one who engages in lengthy and complicated quarrels.

Bluejeans and Jeeps use “wrangler” to connote durability.

Which definition describes the market action?

Supervisory, quarrelsome or durable?

Sister Semiconductors, in her recent supervisory role, today gave back the last four days of gains in one full swoop.

Since SMH led the pack, as a wrangler does, perhaps the other part of a wrangler’s job-cleaning up poop-finally got to her.

No surprise then that her fatigue led to a quarrelsome Modern Family.

Can a tired supervisor and quarrelsome siblings maintain the market’s durability?

Last night I asked, “Will the steel endure the rust or will the rust decay the steel?”

The intention of that question was to examine the naggingly enduring dichotomy between the weakening sectors that measure the true economy versus the Nasdaq tech rally.

Can we now conclude that the rust has decayed the steel?

Today, I woke up to read analysts putting out “buy” recommendations in Amazon and Facebook.

Buy recommendations after historic moves can often mean the kabosh on the rally. At the risk of sounding cynical, those buy recs worked out for about a minute.

With strong topping reversal candles in both stocks, we could see a 5-9% correction from the apex.

How about those dotted lines depicting the 50 daily moving averages in the Modern Family?

Yesterday, 3 of the 6 sectors were below the dotted line.

Today, Retail tested levels not seen since the day after the election. For now, 40.52 (November 9th low) held. Caveat emptor however. On November 9th, XRT closed on the intraday high to begin a substantial rally.

Today, XRT closed below mid-range. Only a move over 42.00 and today’s high will provide a cane for the limping Granny.

Furthermore, now 4 and counting, the Russell 2000 joined Retail XRT, Regional Banks KRE and Transportation IYT under the 50-DMA.

Prodigal Son Regional Banks dropped to his knees to ask for forgiveness. KRE decayed by over 5%.

Biotechnology IBB declined as well. Conceivably auspicious, the 50-DMA remains intact.

So what about a wrangler’s durability?

Until today, the supervisory, quarrelsome wrangler in charge since the election has managed to lasso up all the controversy. Now, he could be wrangling crocodiles.

S&P 500 (SPY) And so ends the streak of 109 days without a 1% decline. 232.45 the 50 DMA. 235.50 area resistance

Russell 2000 (IWM) 11 days of price action engulfed in one single day. That monthly channel failure at 140.50-that’s called hindsight. 133.60 the 100 DMA

Dow (DIA) 203.90 the 50 DMA. Back thru 208 nothing short of a miracle

Nasdaq (QQQ) The lesson-NASDAQ is always the last to know. 128 the 50 DMA 130 pivotal

KRE (Regional Banks) Retraced to the November breakout around 52.40. 54.00 pivotal

SMH (Semiconductors78.30 resistance. Good news, support down to 76.00

IYT (Transportation) Similar to KRE, into the late November highs- with support around 159.25 to 160.00

IBB (Biotechnology) 287.32 the 50 DMA

GLD (Gold Trust) 120.27 the 200 DMA with now 118 close pivotal area

SLV (Silver) Unconfirmed recovery phase

GDX (Gold Miners) Could not close over the 50 DMA so needs to or could see a dip

USO (US Oil Fund) 10.02 recent low

TAN (Solar Energy) At 17.00 worth a buy

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) The relayed the selloff when it cleared 118. Now, 121 big resistance

UUP (Dollar Bull25.65 recent swing low support

Disclosure: None.

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