The Market Of Dragons

A huge fan of Game of Thrones, one of my favorite characters is Daenerys Targaryen, Mother of Dragons.

After losing her husband and child, she helps hatch three dragons from their eggs. At times, although they regard her as their “Mother,” she struggles to maintain control over them.

Much of the same can be said about the current market.

We haven’t mentioned the Chinese Year of the Fire Rooster in a while. It’s ironical to me that the ancestral dinosaur of the rooster has been uprooted by its more sinister relative-a fire breathing dragon.

Depending where one looks, one can either see loss or hatched eggs.

Retail (XRT) suffered more losses today. Making a new 2017 low, conceivably the retail weakness is finally coming home to “roost.”

Meanwhile, our other fertile heroine, Sister Semiconductors, closed green. Hatched eggs.

Nevertheless, the Market of Dragons is struggling to maintain control over the four indices.

Like Daenerys’ largest dragon, Drogo, the Russell 2000 appears to have broken free and is currently living close to the 50 daily moving average.

So while yesterday’s bear fang magically became a crystal pendant, have today’s dragon teeth grown longer and sharper?

On the plus side, the Dow continues to wow the market. Marginally down and holding the runaway gap, the appetite for blue chip stocks is well, dragonlike.

In alignment with the technology and Semiconductor sectors, Nasdaq 100 held up well. Yet SMH, QQQ and DIA have little to do with the real measure of the economy.

For that we look at the rest of the Modern Family. Several members appear more dragon-like by the day.As their horns grow, so do their menacing presence.

Russell 2000 (IWM) flashes warning signs. Besides its too-close-for-comfort proximity to the 50 DMA, the slope of the 50 DMA has neutralized.

Granny Retail is in a Bear phase on both the weekly and daily charts.

Transportation (IYT) sits above its 50 DMA for now. However, should that level fail, a price of 160 is not out of the question.

Senseless to call Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB) or Google (GOOGL) safety plays, maybe the most aberrant feature of the market is that the typical safety plays do not look all that safe.

For instance, the 20+ Year Treasury Long Bonds have fallen as the prospect of higher rates has risen.

Gold and Silver continue their decline for the same reason-prospect of higher rates. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar strengthened.

Like Dragons, the market is magically strong. Like the Mother of Dragons, in spite of the disparities, the market has been mystically tamed.

S&P 500 (SPY) Barely holding 237 on its 5th day of correction. Support at 236.50 on the monthly chart. Then not much until 230.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 136.68 the 50 DMA held for now-but slope is declining. Remember how this got right to the top of the monthly channel? So far sell signal is working

Dow (DIA) Runaway gap holding. A gap below 208.37 would not be good.The longer it holds 209 the better

Nasdaq (QQQ) 130 key support

KRE (Regional Banks) 57 major support to hold and back over 58 better

SMH (SemiconductorsUnless this clear 77.50, looks toppy especially if fails 76.22 today’s low

IYT (Transportation) 167 major support. More sideways since December than up

IBB (BiotechnologyGapped under 299 which forced the late specs out. 285 is the best underlying support

XRT (Retail) Poor Granny-if can close back over 42.11 maybe some relief

IYR (Real Estate) Back under the 200 DMA but sitting on the January 6-month calendar range high

GLD (Gold Trust) On the 100 DMA. Oversold-back over 116 low risk buy

SLV (Silver) 16.50 holding

USO (US Oil Fund) Low volume action but slopes are declining

XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration) Never mind on that possible good volume reversal pattern above the 200 DMA.

TAN (Solar Energy) 17.75 in focus

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 118 support and 120 pivotal resistance

UUP (Dollar BullI think maybe lower based on a bear wedge unless it closes over 26.36

Disclosure: None. 

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