Tomorrow the Fed will release the minutes from the May 2-3rd FOMC meeting, and while the minutes aren’t expected to have any shocking content…

The market is set up in such a way that it could easily be spooked.

Today was an up day in the market, but it was not much more than a quiet consolidation day. In fact, the volume in the SPY was the second lowest of the year.

Low volume and consolidation is not bearish, but it does suggest that the SPY may be thinking twice about its attempt to move out to new all time highs.

Today was the fourth up day in a row. Expecting a fifth up day when it sits at such a big resistance level may be too much to ask.

Plus, the FOMC minutes will be released tomorrow so that’s a perfect scapegoat for any down day. The news from the minutes may not be all that negative, but the market could easily decide that it’s time to take profits, and…

Every Modern Family member, for its own technical reason, is set up in such a way that a simple nudge to the downside could turn into a big trend down day.

Here’s why the Modern Family (and market) is vulnerable…

SPY, IWM, SMH, IYT, and KRE all have a pattern of a four day rally back to significant resistance after the ‘surprise’ down day last Wednesday.

XRT continued its down trend today so it’s not likely to support a down market.

IBB hasn’t rallied much at all, so a break lower would be quite negative.

However, there isn’t any reason to expect that the market will see a massive decline.

This is simply a case where the market is technically vulnerable, and particularly sensitive to news from the Fed (which we know is coming) so a down day should not come as a surprise.

From a practical, or tactical, point of view there is an easy way to hold on for any ride higher, and still avoid a big surprise down day. Use our simple rules for Opening Range based trend days.

If the market trades below its 30 minute opening range and today’s low, then it may turn into a big surprise down day. If not, the bulls can hold on.

I’m sorry if I’ve ruined the potential surprise.

S&P 500 (SPY) Fourth up day in a row and stopped right at the big resistance level of 240. Next level to break is the all time high at 240.67, but 5 up days in a row is a lot to ask for. Support around 237.70, and 236.50 before you get to the weekly low of 235.40 If that breaks watch out below with support at 233.50 and then 225.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Closed over 137 which has been pivotal. Look for support there now, but if it breaks below 136.35 it may be headed back down. A close above 138 would put things in a positive perspective

Dow (DIA) Closed marginally over 209 and could not fill the gap from last Wednesday. Getting tired? 206.50 may offer support. 205.85 is the weekly low and if that breaks then it should find support around 204. If it breaks 204 the next support level is 194 on monthly charts

Nasdaq (QQQ) Consolidation day. Important support at 135.80 and if broken look for next support at 133.70

KRE (Regional Banks) Nice trend up day, but there’s a lots o overhead at 54-55. The big support to hold is 51.50. Big support at 46.50.

SMH (Semiconductors) Consolidation day. Last week’s high is 84.77. May find support at 83, but needs to hold 81.44. If it can’t, next support at 79.60.

IYT (Transportation) Closed over key level of 162, but there’s a lot of resistance from 163-164.The 200 DMA is just below this week’s low at 157.40. This area needs to hold or it will look like this key sector is ready to lead the market lower.

IBB (Biotechnology) Another consolidation day.Stuck in a range of 295-288. Big support and 200 DMA at 285-284.

XRT (Retail) After 3 days of consolidation, it resumed its down trend. It needs a flush and reversal pattern to think about any serious long play. Or a move above 43.Long-term pattern on weekly pattern looks heavy with support at 38 at 80 month moving average.

IYR (Real Estate) Edging higher, but still stuck between 77 and 79

XLU: Yesterday’s strong breakout from 3 months of consolidation continued higher until it hit resistance at 53. 52 should be support. Looks setup to run higher.

GLD (Gold Trust) Needs to get over 120 to look good and confirm phase change. Breakdown under low at 118.50 could mean a lot more pressure to downside to follow.

SLV (Silver) Weak day but it held 16 which is a key level to hold now.

GDX (Gold Miners) Wait for a break over the 200 DMA and 6-month calendar range of 23.90 to get long.