The Institutional Index Took A Big Hit Today
The Institutional Index took a big hit today, however, other indexes did well such as Small Caps which actually closed higher. So I am not sure if a new short-term downtrend started today or not.
I definitely don't want to declare a new short-term downtrend with a major index looking like this. But, my guess is that small caps and other out-of-favor stocks can only push the market higher for a limited period of time.
These bullish percents look like they might start to head lower except for the NYSE.
The semiconductors broke out and pulled back. Is it an ideal set up to move higher, or will it break down? I don't know so maybe I should forget what it might do in the future, and just look at the signals that it has already sent. I see a very strong bull market trend, then a bullish break out from a consolidation ascending triangle. Finally, there is a short-term pull back to the point of the break out. Classic technical behavior. So, at the moment, the index has long-term and medium-term bull signals, but a short-term caution signal. Note to self, the bottom line is that until the uptrend line is broken, assume higher prices.
The Leader List
The long-term leaders are blue, the short-term leaders are green and the ETFs that are showing recent strength are shown at the bottom. The S&P500 is the benchmark. Disclaimer: This list is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
The ETFs hitting new 52-week highs today were: ITB, ITA, XLI, IWM, SDY, RSX.
This leader list is really getting long, but the technicals are really good for stocks right now.
John Murphy pointed out in last week's column that there is a huge market rotation taking place out of the former leaders and into the laggards. That is confirmed today with Technology and NAS100 dropping off the leader list.
Bad day for most stocks, but the Home Builders did well.
Nice little break out for Russia.
Oil stocks breaking out.
Outlook
The ECRI index is pointing to weak economic growth in the months ahead.
The long-term outlook is worrisome.
The medium-term trend is up.
The short-term trend is... not sure. Watching carefully for signs of a short-term downtrend.
Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. My comments above reflect my view of the market, and what I am doing with my accounts. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy, ...
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