When Harry Truman pleaded for a one-armed economist, it was out of exasperation from hearing from his advisors “On the one hand this might happen, but on the other hand that might happen.”

It would seem that in one respect a lot has changed, while in another not much has changed in the 50 years since Harry left office. (Apologies in advance for the analogy to HST’s lament).

This was evidenced in a week where the Dow and S&P were both up 2.3% tacking on 360 and 42 points respectively. The 360 point DJIA move was the index’s biggest gain since December and the S&P was up 5.6% in the past nine trading days after falling 5.6% in eight trading sessions to a low on February 3.  Joseph Amato was quoted in the press as saying: “Reasonably good fourth-quarter earnings [indicating] 9% growth helped propel stocks." 

Also helping the indexes propel themselves was the new Fed Chair Janet Yellen (who eschews putting a second syllable on her title) testimony before Congress that left little doubt that “continuity” will be the watch word going forward.

Ms. Yellen’s two key takeaways were: 1. that the Fed would carry through the tapering started by BB and 2. there was little risk that short term rates would rise any time soon.

“Continued support was provided by” (to quote the voice at the beginning and end of each PBS broadcast) the release of the EU statistics office releasing a GDP figure of 1.1% for 4Q13 which was the third straight quarter of growth.  Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight, characterized this as follows: “Normally you wouldn't be particularly thankful” for that kind of growth number.  “It’s nothing to really sing from the trees about, but in light of recent events, you probably are for the euro zone.”

The poster child of the euro crisis, Greece, turned in its version of progress as the nation’s GDP shrank by a 2.6% annual rate in the last quarter slowing from a faster falling knife rate of 3.0% in the 3^rd quarter.  Not quite sure if that’s Hellenic or hellish but we’ll let the pundits figure that one out.

With those factors on economists' one hand, there were a number of things to balance the rosy colored view.

Industrial output fell a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in January, the first decline since last July.  Additionally, retail sales posted their sharpest decline in a year and a half dropping 0.4% from December to January.

Hiring slowed in the last two months with folks like Steve Weil, president of Rockmount Ranch Wear Mfg. Co. saying he was “nervous and concerned” about hiring additional workers due to worries about health-care costs and uncertainty about the global economy. With his flagship store in Denver, a travel hub for the Winter ski season, Steve agreed that “there’s no question that storms reduced traffic” but also stated, “I have seen no reason to think that there’s going to be sustained growth.”

CEO, Paul Grangaard, of Allen Edmonds, a Wisconsin-based maker of men’s shoes echoes Mr. Weil’s sentiments in saying, “Retailers always really use the weather as an excuse but this year it has seemed to be having a true impact on people’s psyche.  It seems at least the consumer is taking a bit of a break this winter”.

This does not portend well in an economy where consumer spending makes up about 70% of GDP.

A possible counter to these negative sentiments was news yesterday that US consumers increased credit outstanding by the most since 3Q07 and we all know what happened right after that.

Joseph LaVorgna, chief US economist with Deutsche Bank said, “People actually want to step up and take on more debt, and banks want to provide it."

This could be the result of consumers cleaning up their balance sheets over the past few years with household debt now about 109% of disposable income down from 135% in 2007 when total household debt was $12.7 trillion (with a “T”).

A final and possibly slightly spurious warning sign comes from market chatter last week that the current path of the DJIA traces almost perfectly the route it took in 1928-1929.  This was the cause of an inordinate amount of email and social media traffic with the result of there being as many of those consenting as dissenting.

But that only brings us around to what President Truman decried 50 years ago. Maybe nothing has changed. Or maybe it has.