The Dollar Is Struggling To Break Free
Metals and Miners showed subtle signs of bouncing. Gold and Silver still need to secure closes above their 10-day EMA’s to confirm a bounce.
If gold continues to rally, I’ll expect prices to rollover between $1,262 and $1,275. Silver could rise to around $17.10 before meeting resistance. I don’t see an advantage in trading this bounce.
A few members were confused about our expectations. I’d like to take a moment to clarify. The bounce we are expecting should be temporary. Once complete, metals and miners should decline into their extended 6-month lows. The decline needs to be long enough and severe enough to turn sentiment decisively bearish. Currently, we expect the low to arrive in late July or early August.
-US DOLLAR- The dollar is struggling to break free from the short-term trendline. If prices can rise above 97.70, we should see a run to the 99.00 level.
-GOLD- Prices rallied but fell after touching the 10-day EMA. However, they did close high enough to form a swing low. It’s unclear if the short-term bounce has begun. Primary resistance for a rebound lives between $1,262 and $1,275.
-SILVER- Prices formed a swing low, but we need a close above the 10-day EMA to endorse a bounce. If prices continue higher from here, I suspect the $17.10-$17.25 area will stop the rebound.
-GDX- Miners closed above the 10-day EMA. If prices are bouncing, I believe they will rollover and turn lower between $23.00 and $23.50. Note: There was selling into strength numbers for GDX.
-GDXJ- Juniors found support and bounced after reaching the May trendline. This bounce should be temporary, and then we should see a sharp break below the May trendline.
-SPY- Prices closed precisely on the 10-day EMA. Bulls and Bears are fighting for control. I still think we will reach the 246+ target, but closing below the 10-day EMA could initiate a brief pullback.
-WTIC- Oil continues down, and we might be closing in on a bottom. I might consider a swing trade if we get a reversal candle within the next few trading days. I’ll alert members if I see a setup.
-XLE- The positive divergence was busted. Nevertheless, we could be approaching a tradable bounce in crude oil.
Disclosure: None.
thanks