The Declining Trend-Line Is Up For A Test Of Resistance

My Swing Trading Approach

I'm taking as much from the market as it is willing to give. Meaning, I am not overly committing to the long side, but if there are opportunities to take advantage of, I am going to take them, while raising stops to protect existing profits. With recent market choppiness, I want to make make sure that a sudden or swift sell-off doesn't hit the portfolio hard, and that I remain profitable, as I have managed to do each month so far this year

Indicators

  • VIX - a 7% decline on Friday, continues to strengthen the bear's argument. On the verge of breaking down and below through support going back to the lows of March. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading below their 40-day moving average): Hard 18% bounce, bringing the indicator's reading to 53.5%. Still well off of the April highs, but the chart remains orderly and intact. 
  • Moving averages (SPX): Bounced off of the 200-day moving average and reclaimed the 5, 10 and 20-day moving averages. Poised for another test of the 50-day MA in the coming days.

Industries to Watch Today

Technology led the way on Friday. and breached (barely) the declining trend-line off of the March highs. Discretionary also strong, looks poised to breakout of consolidation here. Despite the bounce on Friday in Staples, I would remain leery of this sector, as plenty of price resistance looms immediately overhead. Real Estate breaking out of late. Financials barely hanging on. Energy still consolidating, but one of the best sector charts out there. 

My Market Sentiment

Finally, the declining trend-line is up for a test of resistance. The last test came in early March, which rejected price and sent it lower. Key moment for the bulls here, in changing the course of this market for the betterment of the bulls. 

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

(Click on image to enlarge)

swing trading strategy report 195

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