Greetings, 

1. We begin with the energy markets where US crude oil inventories unexpectedly declined, sending prices higher. The Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged gave crude an additional boost.

2. The next chart shows US oil inventories in terms of barrels as well as days of supply.

3. US crude oil production remains stable - for now. Are the current prices, including forward prices (given the steep futures curve), sufficiently high to sustain production at these levels?

4. Speaking of oil production, Russia's output growth has stalled.

Source: HSBC, @joshdigga

5. US gasoline supplies are now below last year's levels in terms of days of supply, which is also contributing to bullish sentiment in oil.

6. Gasoline demand is elevated for this time of the year - typically it should be falling off faster than it has.

7. As a result of the above, US refinery inputs are materially above last year's levels.

8. The last item in our energy section is this spectacular decline in US natural gas rig count over the past decade. And yet, until recently, production has been growing.

1. Turning to other commodities, sugar prices soar on expected near-term supply shortfalls.

2. Not all "breakfast food" prices have moved higher (we've seen coffee and milk rally in recent days). Here is the average US retail price of eggs.

3. Copper is showing signs of life on the renewed risk-on sentiment.

1. Next, we look at emerging markets, where equity prices are pushing toward multi-year highs, thanks in large part to the FOMC.

2. Indonesia's central bank cut rates as expected. With inflation turning lower (second chart below). Goldman expects more rate cuts in Q4.

Source: Goldman Sachs, @joshdigga

3. Turkey's central bank (partially due to political pressures) also cut rates, tightening the overnight rate "corridor".  

Source: Natixis, @joshdigga

4. Some indicators point to a recovery in Russia. It will be difficult to build momentum, however, without material improvements to the financial health of Russian households.

Source: Natixis, @joshdigga

5. Brazil's inflation continues to ease on the real's stability and weak domestic demand.

6. Mexico is increasingly dominating auto production in North America. With the peso at current levels, this trend is likely to continue.

Source: Macquarie, @joshdigga

7. Indian government bond yields are hitting multi-year lows as foreign money comes in.

Foreigners are also going after direct investments in India. 

Source: Macquarie, @joshdigga

8. Here are the latest figures for emerging markets' FX reserves, pointing to some of the more vulnerable economies.

Source: @TheEconomist, @Tmp_Research; Read full article here

1. Looking at Asian economies, Taiwan's exports unexpectedly rose by 8% from the previous year.

Institutional money is flowing into Taiwan as investors sense recovery.

Source: Citi, @joshdigga

2. Hong Kong's inflation unexpectedly jumped, although most economists view this move a transient.

3. With the dollar softer after the FOMC meeting, Beijing is targeting a stronger level for the renminbi (in part based on the CFETS basket).

1. Now, on to the Eurozone, where Fitch Ratings has been concerned about the Portuguese banking system. 

Source: Fitch Ratings

2. Ireland's export profit margins remain the highest across the Eurozone.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, @joshdigga

3. French business confidence remains quite stable, beating expectations.

4. Yields across the Eurozone are coming back in as the bond correction from last week is reversed. Here we have German, Irish, and Italian yields.

5. Morgan Stanley points out that the new refugees in Germany should add to the GDP growth in the coming years. A significant portion of this is due to additional government spending but satisfying the demand for low-skilled labor and all the spending by the refugees should also help.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, @joshdigga 

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, @joshdigga

Elsewhere in Europe, the Norges Bank left rates unchanged and in effect said there would be no more cuts for a while. Norway's krone surged in response (second chart below shows it rising against the euro).

See video

1. In the United States, the initial jobless claims figure is back near multi-decade lows. Layoffs in the US remain relatively low.

2. Goldman characterized the three dissents on the FOMC as a "rare discord". A December rate hike is increasingly likely.

Source: Goldman Sachs, @joshdigga

3. US house prices continue to rise at double the rate of median wages. While this works when mortgage rates are just above record lows, the trend is not sustainable in the long run (unless wage growth accelerates substantially).

4. Home price increases in Texas accelerate. 

5. Existing home sales in the US unexpectedly decline as inventory remains tight and more buyers get priced out of the market.

6. Related to the above, this next chart shows housing inventory (homes for sale) adjusted for the US population.

Source: NAR, Bloomberg, St. Louis Fed

7. Deutsche Bank points out that lower Capex in the US just not an energy story. This does not bode well for productivity growth.

Source: Deutsche Bank, @joshdigga

1. In fixed income markets, yield product is catching a bid again. Here are US corporate HY and REIT ETFs.

2. Deutsche Bank is concerned that despite the rally in credit, the lowest-quality corporate names are struggling to access debt capital markets.

Source: Deutsche Bank, @joshdigga

3. Rate volatility is falling again, as the implied swaption vol is back near recent lows. This is the sort of thing that has the Fed officials concerned about leaving rates too low for too long.

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, the Fed is also concerned about the chart below. Barring any major shocks to the economy, a rate hike is coming this year.

1. We now switch to the funding markets where LIBOR is grinding higher on a daily basis.

2. The Ted Spread is at the highest level since 2009 as a result of the looming money market funds regulation.

3. Commercial paper markets continue to shrink together with prime money market funds who buy these products. Financial commercial paper has been hit the hardest.

1. In global developments, here is the breakdown of negative yielding bonds by country (from Fitch Ratings).

Source: Fitch Ratings

2. QE has created a tremendous gap between asset price inflation and the "real economy" inflation.

Source: Goldman Sachs, @joshdigga

3. Speaking of QE, here is what central banks' balance sheets look like as a percentage of the GDP. The BoJ is expected to beat the SNB in the coming year.

Source: @fastFT; Read full article here

4. Service sector PMIs show a recovery in emerging markets, just as the US slows.

Source: Macquarie, @joshdigga

1. Turning to Food for Thought, here is what the dumbing down of presidential speeches looks like.

Source: @TheAtlantic, @Tmp_Research; Read full article here

2. Based on the UN expectation scores, the US is not meeting its health goals.

Source: @business, @Tmp_Research; Read full article here

3. Here are some statistics on the latest US presidential elections polls.

Source: @WSJThinkTank; Read full article here

4.  In a tight race, televised presidential debates could have a substantial impact on the poll results.

Source: @FactTank, @LarrySabato, @Tmp_Research; Read full article here

5. Perceptions of media coverage of presidential candidates over time.

Source: @michaelbarthel; Read full article here

Have a great weekend!