The Corporate Bond Market: Binge-Borrowing
How does Felder calculate such a clever metric? With the help of some Federal Reserve data, no less, he incorporates the buyback bout to create a holistic valuation methodology to capture comprehensive corporate valuations. Because one frenzy, bond sales, has fed the other, the stock market’s historic run by way of share count reduction, it’s simply disingenuous to not marry the two. You can want to try, but it’s futile to examine bond or stock valuations in a vacuum.
“This has essentially been a massive debt for equity swap that serves to reduce the value of equity outstanding while greatly expanding the amount of debt outstanding,” added Felder. “Equity-only valuation measures fail to account for this phenomenon. This measure incorporates it.”
The point, though, is not that the current rally will necessarily buckle under the weight of bloated valuations. To the contrary, pensions’ sheer buying power, their trillions upon trillions of dollars of monies to be allocated, can indeed make it appear that we are now in 1999, or better yet, 1996. But don’t be fooled – you’re still paying a dear price to play with fire.
So stop yourself the next time you hear some talking head reassuring you that the price-to-earnings ratio on a trailing 12-month basis is dirt cheap. Fight the temptation to validate your sense of security by proclaiming, “Wow, that erudite expert has some set of lobes!” Don’t just move on to the next episode, hitting BUY on that equity ETF. Stop and ask yourself just how profoundly this deep thinker has probed into the true drivers of valuations in recent years. More to the point, ask yourself whether the source is clean or compromised.
If you need inspiration, look to some of the greatest lines ever penned in Politics and the English Language by George Orwell: “The great enemy of clear language is insincerity. When there is a gap between one’s real and one’s declared aims, one turns as it were instinctively to long words and exhausted idioms, like a cuttlefish spurting out ink.” And yes, Orwell was English. You can safely read his words aloud, with a British accent.