The Breathtaking Volatility Of Individual Stocks

The volatility of individual stocks never ceases to amaze me. Just today David and I were cycling through some large prominent names such as Intel Corp (INTC),International Business Machines (IBM), Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Exxon Mobil (XOM), etc. The shocking conclusion we came to is that even large stalwart stocks that you wouldn’t think could fluctuate by 10-20% in a month, or even a week, often times do.

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Not only that, but they do so quite regularly in response to earnings reports, guidance announcements, or even unfounded trading momentum. Sometimes it’s simply a matter of more anonymous sellers than unidentifiable buyers. When you have been following and researching ETF’s as long as we have, sometimes it’s easy to forget how tricky individual stock investing can be.

When examining a popular ETF such as the Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index (VYM), 8 of the top 10 holdings have fluctuated, or made high-to-low changes, of roughly 10% or more just so far in 2015.  It’s phenomenal to view single company charts, then examine VYM and identify the volatility, or beta, has been roughly half the average of its top 10 constituents, or about 5%.

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I bring this to our audience’s attention because VYM is a relatively large holding within our Strategic Income Portfolio, so we commonly look under the hood to identify any overly erratic price movements. By far the most interesting observation (depending on which ETF you are analyzing) is that if you examine just the top ten holdings, you’re really only ascertaining a small cross section of the entire basket.

While one or all of the aforementioned stocks might underperform and drag on the entire ETF, the other 90% of the fund might be concurrently outperforming. This is why we believe so wholeheartedly in the simple virtue of low-cost diversification; as a means of smoothing out individual stock volatility.

In my opinion it’s often times an overlooked advantage of ETF investing that continues to deserve attention.  As an exercise, view the largest ETF holdings in your portfolio, and then view the price performance of their top ten holdings. I think you would be shocked at what you discover, which is why building a well-diversified portfolio in this type of market environment should be a requirement for all investors alike.

Disclosure: FMD Capital Management, its executives, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds or any investment asset mentioned in this post. The commentary does not constitute ...

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Carol W 8 years ago Contributor's comment

Michael, Take the IYT for example. It's been clobbered lately - well since 2014- If I had been only in it, I would have missed the runup in the airline stocks ( yes I am still up on the group despite the recent (& I might add completely stupid) selloff. I would have missed the run in FLTX, and many more. I own ETF's but I must say, you get what you pay for. They are expensive, and many times they are traps. I don[t agree they are safer investments than individual stocks. First of all, you only get the top ten holdings most times. The rest is a mystery. I want to know exactly what I own! I research stocks every single day. The volatility in the big growth names is as you know because they are so liquid and the HFT's manipulate then as much as any other group. Gone are the days when "you'll never lose your job recommending IBM" They are over. But please don't make a case for an ETF being "safer" than owning MSFT. ETF's are a day trader's playground.They make great trading vehicles dues to their liquidity as you know. They were never meant to be core holdings especially the ones that rebalance daily. Thanks, Carol