Tech Flows Are Finally Rolling Over

While one wouldn't see it by looking at the S&P 500 which in fits and starts continues to push toward its January all-time highs, the latest weekly flows saw a broad "risk off" shift in investor mood, with $3.6BN out of equities ($0.7bn ETF outflows, $2.9bn mutual fund outflows), $2.3BN out of bonds, and $0.5BN out of gold.

Curiously, despite the so-called decoupling between the US and the rest of the world, investors weren't convinced, and pulled $2.6BN out of US equity funds, despite the recent BofA survey showing the biggest equity overweight by fund managers in US stocks since Jan '15.

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Meanwhile, it appears that at least according to fund flows, the leadership is finally broken. Remember this chart from a month ago, when BofA annualized tech inflows YTD and came up with a ridiculous number?

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Well, the streak is now over and the last week saw the biggest Tech outflow since the Feb sell-off, as investors pulled$0.5bBN, together with big redemptions from Financials ($1.2bn).

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Another streak that is clearly over in light of the recent EM fireworks, is that into Emerging markets, which also saw some $0.2BN in outflows. Meanwhile, Europe remains near rock bottom, with 23 consecutive weeks of outflows after the latest $2.9 billion in latest weekly outflows.

And as investors pulled money out of growth, the rushed into "late cycle" defensives, with big inflows to Healthcare ($0.8bn & $5.5bn inflows past 3 months = 4% AUM).

And speaking of late cycle, the top 5 performing S&P sectors in the past 3 month all defensive: staples, utilities, REITs, healthcare, telco.

Putting the above in context, here are the most overbought and oversold assets in August:

  • Most overbought assets in Aug: US equities, global healthcare, US high yield
  • Most oversold assets in Aug: European credit, global financials & materials, Italy, China, Turkey

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