Strange Brew

Yesterday we pointed out some basic physics and how objects in motion stay in motion. For the most part, there was more of that today with two of the four key indexes posting strong gains while making new ATH (All-TIME HIGHS) with semiconductors continuing to lead.

In fact, the divergence among the sectors very apparent in the modern family narrowed with trannies (IYT) making up lost ground, regaining a bullish phase with strong upside action. Even the financial sector managed to eke out gain to an unconfirmed bullish phase.

However, the strange brew the markets are drinking seems to hold physical properties yet undiscovered by science or big data.For instance, Utilities are now one of the strongest market sectors which is not normal when Equity markets are at ATH highs or during periods of low volatility.

Volatility even rose a bit today despite the strong market action. Let’s just say Equities prices are now driven by unseen dark matter and operate with more uncertainty than particles as observed by Heisenberg who introduce the Uncertainty Principle.

Therefore, our expectation going forward is to expect more of the same market action as we have experienced over the past few weeks. Dramatic sell offs from nowhere and the reversals that follow.

Another very strange ingredient to add into the cauldron is that alternative currencies have gone parabolic. In 2017 Bitcoin traded as low as 780 and is now at 2500 give or take a few hundred points. That is some serious price action underway and when it’s over it will be added to record books on manias to be studied.

Retail continued to lag in a bear phase but with some notable exception such as Best Buy. Best Buy is living up to its namesake by posting incredibly strong earnings. It rocketed making a new All-time Highs today up 21%! Somehow, they have managed to navigate thru the retail minefield as the designated survivor in the electronics retail space that has a physical presence.

S&P 500 (SPY) Six days up in a row and a new all-time high with no overhead resistance First support is still 240 then around 237.70, and 236.50 before you get to the weekly low of 235.40 If that breaks watch out below with support at 233.50 and then 225.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Weak relative performance… a confirmed upside breakout of trendline occurs at 139. Look for support about 136.80-137, but if it breaks below 136.35 it may be headed back down.

Dow (DIA) Nice upside gap and possible breakout from compression zone. A close over ATH at 211.50 would confirm upside. 205.85 is the weekly support and if that breaks then it should find support around 204. If it breaks 204 the next support level is 194 on monthly charts

Nasdaq (QQQNo stopping this leading index with New highs. Important support at 135.80 and if broken look for next support at 133.70

KRE (Regional Banks) This sector is one of the weakest and still in trouble in a bear phase There’s a lot of resistance at 54-55. The big support to hold is 51.50

SMH (Semiconductors) Yet another new high in this leading sector. Should find support at 84. A good buy area at or above this level, but needs to hold 81.44. If it can’t, next support at 79.60.

IYT (Transportation) Great upside action closing above 50 DMA and 6-month calendar range low is 161.50 needs to hold. 157.40 for next support

IBB (Biotechnology) Still. Stuck in a range of 295-287. Big support above 200 DMA at 286-287.

XRT (Retail) Lousy action closing on lows of the day.  It needs a flush and reversal pattern to think about any serious long play. Or a move above 43.The long-term pattern on weekly pattern looks heavy with support at 38 at 80 month moving average.

IYR (Real Estate) resistance at 80.40. Should find support around 79. Overall boring action

XLUNice action, on a tear with recent breakout from compression …very strange to see this sector as a leader while market at highs…support at breakout 52-52.25

GLD (Gold Trust) Still needs to close over 120 to look good and confirm phase change. Breakdown and close under low at 118.50 could mean a lot more pressure to the downside to follow.

SLV (Silver) Coiling at 1 and 6-month calendar range highs … and. move above recent high at 16.35 could lead to a nice pop

GDX (Gold Miners) Still Waiting for a break over the 200 DMA and 6-month calendar range of 23.90 to get long. A break below 21 could get ugly to downside

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