S&P 500 Snapshot: The Trump Rally Appears To Be Stalled

This morning the S&P 500 seemed to reiterate its misgivings about Trump's churlish demeanor during his first post-election press conference. The index opened lower and plunged to its -0.93% intraday low about 90 minutes into the trade. A buy-the-dip strategy then steadily lifted the 500 to its fractional -0.21% close, a tad below the -0.16% intraday high shortly before the bell.

Here is a snapshot of the past five sessions (note: our Stockcharts.com source offered no response to our query about the missing intraday volume on Monday).

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The yield on the 10-year note closed at 2.36%, down two BPs from the previous close.

Here is a daily chart of the index. Despite Friday's record close, the two-staged Trump rally has essentially stalled at a line of resistance.

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A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here's a snapshot of record highs and selloffs since the 2009 trough.

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Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted. 

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Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages. 

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A Perspective on Volatility

For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We've also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.

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Disclosure: None.

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Comments

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Moon Kil Woong 7 years ago Contributor's comment

Don't call it a #Trump rally. It is not and until he takes office no bounce is his doing. We shall see what happens the week after next and on. I feel the politicization of stock market reporting is tragically deceiving a lot of people. As we can see with these charts the movement is not that unusual and is a continuation of the recent rally before Trump.

Enjoy it before rates go up, inflation rears its head, and the Fed cuts its support. The result of this will mostly be non Trump related as well, however, he can make it worse by precipitating a global trade war.