Socialists And Super Stars

Three bits of commentary I did not reply to for general consumption. PF asks, “Is Putin pure evil or am I imaging it? :)”

“In Latin America, becoming rich by fraud or looting is easier than by capitalism” notes Mexican capitalist reader, Eduardo Garcia (who writeswww.sentidocomun.co.mex.) He notes that Mexican mining union boss Gomez Urrutia has taken up Canadian citizenship to hide his ill-got loot.

He also quotes Bloomberg Markets, about Venezuelan amigo-of-Chavez and officially “Socialist” Capt. William Biancucci who bought a private plane to hop over the Brazilian border to manage his cattle ranch. It was created with government subsidies to provide beef to Venezuela but the Venezuelan slaughterhouses are not getting the cattle. Where's the beef?

Biancucci told Bloomberg that “socialism is the solution to poverty” while admitting that “Chavez’s socialism has made him rich.” “I’m a socialist, but I love having cash in my hands,” he said. “Socialism is wealth.”

Biancucci is part of a Chavez-backing Venezuelan coterie who became exceedingly wealthy during ugo Chavez's 14 years in power. These supposedly Leftist supporters received billions of dollars from the government after Chavez took office in 1999, for ventures in food distribution, banking, and other activities. Bloomberg says the fund flow is shown in Venezuelan government records.

Yet perhaps there is hope for talent after all. Ben Combes in research@llewellyn-consulting.com, run by macroeconomist John Llewellyn from London, writes about the potential for wealth as new stars rise in the global on-line market for education and health.

Combes writes:

“Both sectors lend themselves to global markets; and both currently take up a large and growing proportion of personal and national income.
“In education, Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are transforming the reach of tertiary education in scale and geography alike. Millions of students can now access pre-recorded material from ‘star’ academics.
“In healthcare, digitalisation is enabling doctors, nurses, and technicians to undertake routine tasks and transmit the information instantly, anywhere in the world. Top specialist consultants will reach patients’ bed-sides with accurate and up-to-date information. Camera technology created the potential to have a ‘Skype’ catch-up so ‘star’ consultants reach many more patients.”
Combs thinks some doctors could become ‘superstars’ like Michael Jordan or David Beckham. He anticipates:

“Beyond education and healthcare, other service sectors, (legal and finance), are likely to be subject to similar forces. Broad developments of particular significance:
 Truly exceptional performers, be they surgeons or diagnosticians, lecturers or researchers,
increasingly being able to draw a clientele from the world as a whole; and
 The salary of such emerging ‘superstars’ rising towards film-star levels.”

More from Australia, Ireland, Israel, South Korea and Africa, Canada, Colombia, Brazil, and Hong Kong, including two quarterly reports.

*Cosan reported Q2 results selectively, claiming that (half consolidated) Raisen Energia sales of fuel rose 16% to Reais 478 mn and that Comgas distribution network added 10% to its client base. It also writes that the Rumo railroad and logistics arm grew its tonnage handled, up 13% to 2.2 mn tonnes. It also hid in the results word that sugarcane production fell by a quarter because of lower productivity, while ethanol sales managed to rise 51.4%, 12% from higher prices and the rest from higher volumes. Moreover, CZZ uses hedges on the NY market to boost sugar sales prices.

All very well but I don't want to have to listen to a Portuguese conference call to get the consolidated (and non-comparable) bottom line. For whatever it is worth, CZZ reported that its net liquid profit for shareholders in Q2 this year hit Rs 104.1 mn vs a loss in Q2 2013 of minus Rs201.5 mn. This was less than half the profit before payments to non-controlled shareholders in the group.

Sales were Rs9.596 bn vs prior year's Rs8.766 bn. The gross margin on sales rose to 12.2% from prior year's 11.6% but the EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) fell to 9.2% from prior year 9.4%. EBITDA, a proxy for gross profits, rose to Rs881.4 mn vs 2013 Q2 level of 827.7 mn.

Further mucking up the numbers, Cosan sold Radar, its agricultural property investment, which created further confusion since some of the land sold is still administered by Radar. And its Rumo arm took control of a railroad from America Latina Logisitica, ALL, for Rs54.6 mn and also invested in ports and other facilities. And there was the impact of the World Cup to consider. And you can count Raisen Energia in full or only half when consolidating. I think I need to wait for the US GAAP version of the accounts despite my ability to read Portuguese. In Brazilian trading this morning the stock fell 2.6%. but the US price is only down 0.17% since nobody else reads Portuguese. I halved my stake today.

*Results were not much better at Iamgold, IAG, which reports in US$s. Its adjusted net earnings came in at $8.8 mn or 2 cents/sh vs 8 cents in the prior Q2. Higher gold production, up 20% to 206 thousand oz, was undermined by lower gold prices so sales were $288.6 mn, down 4%. However, it has now brought into production its Westwood mine in Quebec and upped production in Essakane in Burkino Fasso by 35% from Q1; it is near Timbuktu and near neither the Ebola outbreak nor the Boko Haram one. IAG gold costs $1136/oz which gives it some leeway as the market price drops.

IAG repeated its gold output and cost guidance while raising that for Niobec niobium. CEO Steve Letwin forecast “a stronger second half” thanks to improved ore grades and operating costs.

*Bogota may sell as much as 10% of the shares the govt controls in Ecopetrol, which has led to a drop in the EC share price. Not helping was another guerilla attack which cut its Bicentenario crude oil pipeline within the country yet again.

The sale could produce as much as $2.6 bn which can be used to fill a hole in the govt budget and build new highways. Colombian law prohibits deficit spending. Note that the level of leftist attacks is much lower than last year.

*While I mistrust www.seekingalpha.com anonymous company tips, “pannobasso” who claims to be a researching gene slicing technology wrote today that recently-listed Australian Benitec Biopharma is his “primary investment” in ddRNA to treat diseases. DdRNA inserts a piece of synthetic DNA into the genome of patient target cells extracted from them and then returned to the body for it to move to the genome. The short “hairpin” RNA produced in the DNA by this process interferes with and ultimately silences harmful proteins. Benitec owns the seminal patents for the process which can fight viruses (including AIDS) and other errant genes involved in hepatitis B and C, cancer pain, muscular dystrophy, age-related macular degeneration, and non-small cell lung cancer, to name a few. It began this work 7 years ago in an HIV program at City of Hope hospital in LA. COH is now ready to test the process in live human beings and has won FDA approvals, but still needs funding. BTEBY also is benefiting from the biotech buy mood.

*Israel's Teva Pharma will start phase II trials for Active Biotech's laquinimod, already being developed for multiple sclerosis, as an oral drug against Huntington's disease. Active is Swedish. The link between MS and Huntington's (and other brain lesion diseases like Alzheimer's) has been a focus of the research of TEVA's chief scientist, Dr. Michael Hayden. Laquinimod is a central nervous system immunodillator which has anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective qualities.

*Delek Group is a minor participant in a new consortium to explore for oil in Halamish, in Israel's Negev. Trace were found in 1975 but DGRLY dropped the concession to focus on offshore gas.

*Analysts at HSBC downrated Tencent to neutral from buy after the Chief Strategy Officer yesterday forecast of flat gaming sales in H2, which we reported. Also analysts told Bloomberg their Q3 growth forecasts at TCTZF are at an average of 31%, lowest since Q2 2007. This spread to its part owner Naspers of South Africa in today's trading, down 4.5% while TCTZF is down on 3.5%.

*Canadian analysts at MackieJennings, and Comack all down-rated Pure Technologies, PPEHF here, or PUR in Toronto, after its poor quarterly. Bay Street analysts do the Rockettes proud with their coordination. Take a long view.

*As predicted yesterday, Vale is down further since the presidential race now favors Dilma Rousseff's re-election. VALE is also Brazilian but publishes consolidated standardized results.

*Irish Alkermes is not just a tax inversion play. Its pipeline was deemed “robust” by Morgan Stanley today which rates it neutral while Standard & Poor's Capital maintained its buy rating for ALKS. MS says higher R&D spending will cut EPS for this year to ~30 cents, toward the high end of the company guidance of 19-32 cents. The stock is up 3.3% on all that.

*Paddy Power plc reports on H1 on Aug. 28 Dublin time. Another PDYPF institutional owner yesterday boosted its holding. Parvus Asset Management now owns over 9% of Paddy, held in 11 different funds.

*Electrovaya reports after the market closes today and will hold a conference call at 8 am tomorrow. EFL-Toronto makes lithium ion superpolymer stackable storage batteries without using toxic chemicals. It doesn't make profits.

Sold too soon:

*Your editor listened to the consensus and expected that Canadian Solar would earn 58 cents in Q2 on sales of $560-590 mn. Moreover, our analyst on the company, Max Deml, has given up writing for us or anyone else (he became a fund manager.) So I took profits on CSIQ last week. Wrong move. Yesterday CSIQ reported earnings of 95 cents/sh on sales of $624 mn. In Q2 2013 it lost $12.6 mn. Gross margins rose to 19% from under 13%. The CSIQ stock jumped to over $30 although it fell back some today.

*Posco is selling its 72%-owned specialty steel arm to SeAH Besteel Corp, also Korean for about the equivalent of $725 mn. PKX

*However today's Financial Times revealed the apparent collusion of private equity investors in the 2006 privatization of Kidder Morgan. I sold KMP, Kinder Morgan Private Equity Partners, yesterday. It went up 2% today but I am content with what I got, since I sold to pay normal capital gains rather than have to incur charges for the takeover at my statutory tax rate.

Disclosure: None

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