So Market, Do You Think You Can Dance?

Percolating Hotrods, bouncing Lowriders, euphoric Crows, patient Dogs-all bits from last week’s Daily titles.

Cars, crows and dogs converged on Friday to trip the light fantastic as the Dow, S&P 500 and the Transportation Sector made new all-time highs.

DIA, SPY and IYT danced to every song the band played.

A Santa Fe phenomenon that never ceases to amuse me is that no matter where, when or how, if folks hear one lick of live music, they stop whatever they were doing to dance.

That seductive “So you think you can dance” sentiment I’ve observed here, we now see in the market.

Mind you, some market attendees danced to only a few songs.

Others remained virtual wallflowers.

Overall though, while the French celebrated Bastille Day, a time when a thousand folks stormed the prison to release inmates, investors stormed the market’s consolidation prison and released new buyers.

After wondering, “When will this protracted consolidation period have its day, will July 14th commemorate the official start of the 5th Stage of Disbelief?

Have the Bears finally thrown in the towel to buy?

Some, but not all.

Weak economic indicators such as an unexpected drop in retail sales (haven’t they seen Granny Retail?), unchanged consumer prices and softer revenues for big banks (smallest violin playing), dissuaded some from buying.

Some, but not all.

Buyers came out to buy not only the DIA, SPY and IYT, but also the Russell 2000, Semiconductors and Nasdaq.

Those listening to the Biotechnology band play, only danced to a few songs. IBB closed down slightly.

Regional Banks, after the soft revs in big banks, played to a bunch of wallflowers. KRE lost .63%.

Granny Retail (XRT) tried hard to resuscitate. By the end of the week, a move over the key 40.00 level eluded her.

Monday could go either way. As much as we would like to declare July 14th Bears Become Bulls Day, it could also go the way of the guillotine.

Here’s what must happen to get more Bullish Bears dancing:

  1. The Russell 2000 opens above 143 and doesn’t look back.
  2. The Transportation ETF (IYT) opens above 175.75 and doesn’t look back.
  3. The Biotechnology ETF (IBB) opens above 323 and doesn’t look back.

Here’s’ what could happen that will have investors holding their necks:

  1. The Russell 2000 does not gap higher, instead fails the top of the monthly channel resistance again. Sellers come out and take IWM down below 138.
  2. The Transportation ETF reverses direction. Sellers come out and take IYT down to 172.
  3. Biotechnology breaks 310.

Since the market thinks it can dance, here’s the official notice that it’s holding open auditions for best in show.

S&P 500 (SPY) 245 cleared. Now pivotal. Since new all-time highs, would take a runaway gap here too.

Russell 2000 (IWM) I’d still consider the channel resistance at 142.90 as the number to watch. A gap and run above-sweet! 140 pivotal. 138.00 support

Dow (DIA) 214 pivotal support. Good accumulation day at the highs-momentum up

Nasdaq (QQQ) 142.29 resistance matched by one cent. High 142.30-could be noteworthy

KRE (Regional Banks) Must hold 54.10 clear 56.50 once and for all

SMH (Semiconductors) 86.68 pivotal area and one to note

IYT (Transportation) New highs so best bet for a runaway gap higher

IBB (BiotechnologyMust clear 320

XRT (Retail) Could not hold over 40.00. Now pivotal

IYR (Real Estate) After three waves lower, should this clear back over 81.50 BUY!

GLD (Gold Trust) Like to see if 115 can hold 116 pivotal and 117.50 a better place to clear

SLV (Silver) Meh

GDX (Gold Miners) I got eyes here this week

USO (US Oil Fund) If this clears 9.65 way better

TAN (Solar Energy) Mentioned it looked parabolic-proved me right

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 124-125 resistance. 122.40 support

VXX (Volatility Index) No drama no fear

FXI (China) Yet another new yearly high

***On another note, please join my member only Facebook page: Mish’s Market Minute Daily. Beginning this Wednesday July 19th, I will be there live with the debut of the Modern Family ...

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