Short-Term Oversold Market Finds A Pulse

1-12-2016 3-22-36 PM Pulse image

After serious sell-off some market sectors stage a quiet rally.

Mostly bigger names and sectors saw some buying while other beaten down sectors and names barely budged off their lows.

I’ve been waiting for some type of rally to undo short-term oversold conditions which may provide an opportunity to short since I remain convinced the previous 7- year market rally is over. But, in the end, I remain a prisoner of the tape. That said, my opinions don’t matter at all.

Most of the action again was focused on big names while small caps and other sectors remain mixed. Breadth still featured a negative bias as the advance/decline data was negative. The oversold tech, banking and energy sectors featured the best gains. Gains were also apparent in Europe and other select overseas markets.   

The major difficulty with this market vs 2008 when there was only one source (financial) to the crisis but now being bombarded with negative news from a variety of sources (China, Crude Oil, Debt a la Junk Bonds, Geopolitical issues, Fed Policy changes and do forth).

Market sectors moving higher included: S&P 500 (SPY), Dow (DIA), Tech (QQQ), Healthcare (XLV), Biotech (IBB), Financials (XLF), Retail (XRT), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Consumer Staples (XLP), Industrials (XLI), Transports (IYT), Homebuilders (ITB), Bonds (TLT), Europe (EZU), Germany (EWG), Shanghai (ASHR), Russia (RSX), Thailand (THD), Australia (EWA), Indonesia (IDX), Malaysia (EWM) and scattered others.

Market sectors moving lower included: REITS (IYR), Oil Drillers (XOP), Energy MLPs (AMLP), Utilities (XLU), Japan (EWJ), India (EPI), Gold (GLD), Gold Stocks (GDX), Natural Gas (UNG), Crude Oil (USO), Volatility (VIX) and Commodities (DBC).

Volume was still substantial but breadth overall remains flat to negative.

1-12-2016 3-38-11 PM

Crude oil is still a big factor in market behavior at home and abroad. Severe losses dot the landscape and many firms in the industry will be broke soon.

Wednesday we’ll see more crude oil and distillate inventory data. Early releases show a massive build in gasoline and heating oil.

Let’s see what happens.

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